cmg stock: Chipotle stock: Chipotle Stock slides as CMG warns of flat sales in 2026 after Q4 traffic decline

Chipotle’s latest earnings update didn’t offer investors much comfort about the year ahead. While the company narrowly beat Wall Street’s profit and revenue estimates, sales trends told a more challenging story. Declining same-store sales and a cautious outlook for 2026 caused Chipotle shares to fall sharply. The results underscore the ongoing pressure on CMG’s core customer as eating habits continue to change.

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Why Did Chipotle Stock Drop After Earnings?

Chipotle shares fell after the company warned investors not to expect sales growth in 2026. Shares fell as much as 11% in extended trading after management said it was taking a conservative approach due to unpredictable consumer behavior. According to a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC, analysts were expecting moderate growth, making the flat outlook a major concern.

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How Did Same Store Sales Perform in Q4?

In the fourth quarter, Chipotle reported a 2.5% decline in same-store sales; That’s slightly better than the 2.9% decline Wall Street had expected. Higher menu prices helped offset weak transactions, but traffic fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.
For the full year, same-store sales fell 1.7%, marking Chipotle’s first annual decline since 2016.
CEO Scott Boatwright noted the “dynamic consumer environment,” noting that eating habits have changed multiple times over the past year, forcing the company to revise expectations multiple times, according to a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

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How Did the Chipotle Report Do Against Expectations?

Despite the sales pressure, Chipotle’s financial results came in just ahead of estimates. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents, above expectations of 24 cents. Revenue rose nearly 5% to $2.98 billion, slightly above estimates of $2.96 billion. Net income for the quarter was $330.9 million, nearly flat from the prior year, according to a report by Yahoo Finance and CNBC.

What is Chipotle’s 2026 Outlook?

Chipotle told investors it expects flat same-store sales growth in 2026, compared to analysts’ expectations for a 1.8% increase. Boatwright said the guidance reflects caution, adding that consumer trends are “really hard to predict.”
The forecast assumes that initiatives such as limited-time menu offerings will have only a modest impact.

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Who Is Chipotle’s Core Customer Right Now?

Management notes that nearly 60% of customers earn more than $100,000 annually, describing the group as the brand’s “North Star” with a focus on clean ingredients and high-protein meals. Boatwright also noted that younger diners, especially those ages 25 to 35, continue to face economic headwinds, although new rewards and menu strategies have helped draw some back.

FAQ

Why did CMG shares fall today?
Investors reacted negatively to Chipotle’s forecast for apartment sales growth in 2026.

Did Chipotle beat earnings estimates?
Yes, Chipotle slightly beat expectations in terms of both earnings and revenue.