As multilateralism erodes, India must reframe its foreign policy
S.Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who ascended to the top in the Rajya Sabha, officially accepted the new world order. The difficult part is to formulate a new national identity and approach to international relations.
Erosion of multilateralism
India’s Global South leadership in the United Nations General Assembly was the basis for its long-standing foreign policy of ‘strategic autonomy’. The global rules adopted by the former colonial powers, led by the USA, at the UN served their interests in the post-colonial world. India’s Oxbridge-educated diplomats took undisputed leadership in the UN negotiating text on principles and rules and successfully directed pressure on poor countries. The climate negotiations, which ended in 1992, were left entirely to India by the Global South.
However, the rise of China around 2010 through the creation of alternative financing, economic and security institutions affected India’s intellectual leadership position and also irreversibly changed the UN. China chairs four key UN agencies and its aid volumes exceed those of the West. The USA, which could no longer manage the UN process, withdrew from 31 UN institutions.
In 1986, the United States initiated the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, resulting in the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995; Here the interests of developing countries diverged further and India struggled to secure its own interests. In a more equal world, the United States has rejected the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism since 2019, rendering it dysfunctional and returning to unilateral tariffs. On the contrary, China has diversified its exports away from the United States and has now become the largest trading partner of 120 countries.
The problem India faces is not due to the rise of China. While the EU and Canada acknowledge that multilateral structures have collapsed, developing countries are wondering how to revive them. India, which has the potential to become the world’s third largest economy, is particularly attracted to the US-dominated world of transactional relations and is even willing to sideline NATO.
Evolution of strategic autonomy
First, the leadership of the Global South has given India enormous influence, and now where are you going to speak for developing countries when international institutions and law have disappeared? The US and China are competing not for votes in the UN, but for technological superiority.
Secondly, ‘strategic autonomy’ was exercised in the Cold War, when India led the Non-Aligned Movement. It became obsolete after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and gradually became a self-proclaimed identity used to rationalize foreign policy choices. India joined the revamped US-led Quad in 2017 and then chose the Russian S-400 missile system over the US Patriot system in 2018.
The truth is that India turned to the Soviet Union after its veto in 1951 prevented Kashmir from being discussed in the UN Security Council. Russia remains India’s only long-trusted partner offering cutting-edge military technology; The US is eroding this technology to test India’s determination to remain the third pole in a multipolar world.
Third, with the rise of China, US analysts began to describe India as a “volatile state” rather than strategically autonomous. The current US military strategy rejects China’s containment.
power politics
The main scope of international relations outside alliances was within multilateral institutions, which now reverted to asymmetric relations. Reciprocity in tariffs is being redefined as “America first,” implying that the others are in a subordinate relationship. Under the India-US Framework Agreement, India has agreed to double imports, largely industrial products, while the US maintains the 18% tariff and unilaterally decides to cut it sharply after giving further concessions. The EU trade deal eliminated the 70% tariff limit with gradual reciprocal reductions.
The big questions for India are why it is the target of US tariffs and how it can grow in a world marked by change.
The US is determined to prevent the rise of another China, and India has the potential to surpass the US on its own. China exploited multilateral rules to become a fiercely independent global production power, and that opportunity no longer exists. The US’s long-term policy of keeping India separate from Russia and China has now gained more strength, and blunting this policy will test Indian diplomacy.
Reframing foreign policy
India’s comparative advantage lies in its young population; Nearly half of Silicon Valley’s workforce traces its roots to India. Creating and attracting this talent could enhance the ability to become a “cyber superpower” and expand AI into security, manufacturing, and services to secure development space.
To achieve this, India needs good economic and technological relations with the US, Russia and China, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and, more importantly, a foreign policy that replaces ‘strategic autonomy’ with ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’.
First, India, inspired by China and the US in the early 1900s, should take its time, maintain its low international profile and develop internal capabilities that require a diplomatic stance to accelerate the Asian Century and a passive role in all other regions.
Second, even if fragilities in bilateral relations remain, India should prioritize trade diplomacy by shifting exports away from the United States. Now that India is open to industrial imports, the push must continue for free trade agreements with Asia, which will soon account for two-thirds of global wealth, and Africa, the fastest-growing continent.
Third, India must forge new technological, cyber and space relations with its determined and tested partner Russia, now more an Asian power than a European one. This should also enable China to invest in infrastructure and co-production, along with security measures, to take advantage of trade opportunities and accelerate growth.
Fourth, India should approach relations with Pakistan as a foreign policy issue, not a security issue. A new water-sharing arrangement that includes the needs of the Kashmir Valley, revival of the Iran-Pakistan-India Peace Pipeline with Pakistan benefiting from transit fees, and even a trade agreement could create economic incentives.
Finally, as the chairman of BRICS, India has the opportunity to express its new foreign policy by building consensus to reposition BRICS as a community of economic cooperation and not as a multilateral political body. Linking official digital currencies to make cross-border trade, repatriation and tourism payments more seamless would be a good first step.
(Mukul Sanwal is a former UN diplomat)
It was published – 13 February 2026 08:30 IST
