At nation’s biggest port in LA, dismal China trade leads freight slump

New data from the Port of Los Angeles shows that China’s commitments to buy more U.S. agricultural products as part of the trade deal between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump have yet to materialize, contributing to a drop in cargo volume for the nation’s busiest port to a near three-year low.

Total processed cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles in January decreased by approximately 12% year over yearGene Seroka, general manager of the Port of Los Angeles, said the decline in agricultural exports was among the main factors. “Exports to China look bleak,” he said.

According to data shared by the Port of Los Angeles, exports to China have dropped significantly at the country’s major ports; Containerized exports fell 26% last year. Los Angeles, a major agricultural export of soybeans, has been hit hard, according to Seroka.

In early 2026, President Trump announced that China was considering purchasing an additional eight million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for this season (20 million total), following an agreement to purchase 12 million tons in October 2025.

Soybeans coming into China through the Port of Los Angeles fell 80% last year, with no recovery seen in either November or December following initial talks between the US and China.

“This is a really important part of the overall export strategy here,” Seroka said. “Argentina and Brazil have received many soybean-related contracts from China,” he said, adding that any increase in the export ability of the U.S. agricultural sector will take time. “These are not transaction-type applications. These are final three-, six- and twelve-month agreements. So it will be another cycle before the U.S. soybean exporter gets a chance to bid and get in the game,” he added.

The Port of Los Angeles reported approximately 812,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) for January, including imports, exports and empty containers. Nearly 924,000 TEUs were reported in January 2025, supported by frontloading of cargo ahead of not only the major holiday period in Asia but also the start of President Trump’s second-term tariffs. Considering the number of containers, January imports were 421,000 containers, down almost 13% from last year’s high levels. On the export side, 104,000 container units were processed, down nearly 8% year-on-year.

According to the Port of Los Angeles, empty export containers sent back to Asia during times of high demand totaled 286,000 TEUs, down 12.5% ​​from last year, a forward-looking indicator of Asian demand.

Seroka said the 2025 numbers, which rose from a period when importers scrambled to get cargo ahead of tariffs, will continue to be a factor in comparisons through much of 2026. “U.S. trade policy remains largely uncertain, and I expect that to continue,” he said.

The drop in cargo container import volume at the country’s largest port was notable during a period of peak import activity from China and Asian manufacturing hubs more generally for the Lunar New Year, as companies brought in spring and summer products before manufacturing facilities in China closed for a month to celebrate the holiday. According to Seroka, demand for goods can also be seen to be softer in the February data so far, with incoming container numbers appearing “stable”. “Compared to last year’s big first quarter, I’m projecting a less than 10% decline for the first quarter, and I don’t see the economy or cargo volume going off the cliff after that,” he said.

But he added that January’s figures were worrying. “This is our lowest monthly production in almost three years,” Seroka said. “This reinforces why trade policy is so important. American farmers and producers need to stay competitive in global markets. They can’t afford to lose any more land,” he said.

Ocean shipping economics on US routes near ‘breakeven’

As U.S. port activity declines, pressure is being felt in the ocean shipping market as rates trend downward and available container capacity on ships is overwhelming.

The decline in container volumes has led to a widespread decline in ocean freight rates, according to Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Xeneta. Rates in the “mid-low market segment,” typically occupied by larger-volume shippers, fell more than 18% last month, while the market average fell 11.5%.

“Shippers paying the market average should expect further rate softening in the coming weeks, as the mid-to-lower market acts as a bellwether and is more quickly impacted by increased capacity in the transpacific,” Sand said.

Ocean carriers will respond with what Sand calls “aggressive capacity management”; This will mean more empty (cancelled) sailings to help underpin falling rates.

Honor Lane Shipping said in a recent note to customers that current freight rate levels are “approaching or even falling below” carriers’ break-even points on all routes to the U.S. and Canada.

HLS stated that the number of canceled sailings from the week of February 9 onwards reflected declines in ship capacity of 60%, 58% and 50% on the Asia to Pacific Southwest, Asia to Pacific Northwest and Asia to US East Coast trade routes.

As a result of canceled sailings, containers may “roll” once or twice while still in Asia; This means containers sit idle on the trade calendar for weeks until they are placed on a ship destined for the United States. “This could lead to supply chain disruption and delays for shippers,” Sand said.

According to trade data compiled by Descartes, China’s import mix in January was mainly concentrated in consumer goods and industrial inputs; Furniture and bedding, worth 126,149 TEU, account for 16.4% of imports originating from China. The combined import categories of machinery and electrical machinery reached 18.3% of the total volume, while plastics represented 15.4%. According to Descartes data, clothing, shoes and other textile products constituted 6.5% of the total volume, while toys and sports equipment constituted 5.8% of imports.

The decline in China’s trade volume is to some extent offset by the expansion of manufacturing into Southeast Asian countries. According to Descartes, there was a 17.8% annual increase in US containerized imports from Vietnam in January, while imports from Thailand and Indonesia increased by 36.5% and 18% respectively.

“Increased sourcing from Southeast Asia continues to offset some of the decline in imports originating from China,” Honor Lane wrote in a recent note to clients.

At the start of the first trade war in 2018, about 60% of the Port of Los Angeles’ import business was dependent on China, Seroka said. “Today it’s around 40 percent and falling,” he said. The port was able to grow as Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines, made gains. “But you still won’t replace China or even a province in China with another origin,” Seroka said.

The Port of Long Beach, Los Angeles’ sister port, reported record container volumes as a result of preloading in 2025, with trade from Southeast Asia contributing to the volume increase.