Russia’s war against Ukraine puts women off having children

The four-year war between Russia and Ukraine is beginning to damage the countries’ demographics, while delaying or preventing women from starting or expanding families.

While the effects of this broad-based hesitancy to have children may not be immediately obvious, a decline in the birth rate could have far-reaching consequences for economies and societies down the line.

Since February 24, 2022, when Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Ukraine’s fertility rate (average number of births per woman) has fallen; worsened by war, loss of spouses and spouses in conflicts, family separation, and mass migration.

While Ukraine’s total fertility rate was 1.22 in 2021, this rate decreased to 1.00 in 2025. According to United Nations population data. Some quoted a more serious measureUkraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska, warned in December that the fertility rate in the country was falling. 0.8-0.9 children per womanWar and insecurity across Ukraine are causing this “critical decline.”

In order for a society to renew itself from one generation to the next without the need for migration, the total fertility rate must be 2.1 children per woman.

Russia has also seen a long-term downward trend in the fertility rate, made worse by the war. Russia’s fertility rate dropped from 1.51 in 2021 to 1.37 children per woman in 2025. This rate is down from 1.4 recorded the previous year.

However, it seems that the four-year war played a big role in this. Discouraging or preventing women from having children in UkraineIn Russia, women appear resistant to the Kremlin’s and President Vladimir Putin’s calls to have larger families.

Declining birth rates pose major problems for countries as they have knock-on effects on the economy and society; Fewer births mean fewer workers in the workforce in the future, as well as lower productivity and economic growth.

This means lower tax revenues for governments and extra pressure on pension and healthcare systems as an aging population becomes increasingly dependent on a shrinking working population.

Declining fertility and the birth rate (referring to the number of live births per 1,000 people each year) were on the decline before the war, but Russia’s occupation worsened the situation, Iryna Ippolitova, a senior researcher at the Kiev-based Center for Economic Strategy, told CNBC.

“Of course, the situation has worsened in 2022 due to this mass migration, and the majority of those leaving Ukraine were economically active people of working age.” he said and added:

“Many women who could theoretically have children left, and for those who remained, war and uncertainty meant they were unprepared to give birth in Ukraine, and the number of births is still declining.”

Even if the peace talks are concluded and the war ends, Ippolitova said that emigration from Ukraine may continue, and those who remain in the country may postpone starting a family if they fear Russia will invade again. This is another reason why Ukraine needs security guarantees as part of any peace agreement, he said.

Although fertility trends are difficult to predict and baby booms usually occur after wars end, Ippolitova said the country’s low fertility rate could still trouble Ukraine’s economy in the future.

He said that the number of students in schools and universities has begun to decrease, signaling that the working age population will decrease in the future.

“I think this is a huge problem. We already have a labor shortage now, and after the war it will get worse… In 10 or 15 years, when people my age retire, there will be no one to replace them in the labor market,” Ippolitova said.

The Russian state stepped in Incentives for women with three or more childrenIncluding lump sum payments, tax breaks and state aid. The Kremlin has even revived the Soviet-era “Main Heroine” award, offering a cash reward of 1 million rubles (about $13,000) to women who have 10 or more children.

But resistance to such incentives remains, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024; This is the lowest annual total since 1999.

Putin said in his speech in December: end of year press conference He suggested that the fertility rate is 1.4 in 2025 (the real figure is 1,374) and that Russia needs a baby boom.

“We also experienced a slight decrease” [in the fertility rate] — about 1.4. “We need to reach at least 2.0,” said Putin, and told the public in his annual “Direct Line” that “we must make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood fashionable.”

Critics say Putin’s stance on the country’s low fertility rate is based on control rather than demographic concerns.

“I strongly believe that the Putin regime’s efforts to encourage births have nothing to do with any demographic trends. It’s all about social control,” Konstantin Sonin, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, told CNBC.

“[Russia’s authorities] They want women to be at home, they want women to be with the children. “They want men to be interested in women, not politics,” said Sonin, a leading critic of Putin.

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a response.

Sonin argued that Putin had already shown that he did not care about demography by starting a war against Ukraine, and that the conflict was causing economic instability, shortages in the labor market and inflation.

Sonin said the Kremlin’s efforts to encourage more births have failed because women in Russia do not feel safe and secure, the low birth rate is direct evidence of this, and the positive image of the country and the war has been effectively eliminated by Russia and state media.

“For every woman and every young family, there are more important things than how much money they will receive from the state through a direct cash transfer. What is important for them is the general sense of security. And this does not exist in Russia,” Sonin said.

“The quality of life has fallen since the beginning of the war. Hundreds of thousands of young people have died because of the war, so people suddenly feel much less safe than they did in other situations.”