Why Iran resists giving up its nuclear program, even as Trump threatens strikes

Embassy staff and their dependents are being evacuated, airlines are suspending services, eyes in Iran are warily turning to the skies for signs of attack.

With massive American naval and air power lurking off Iran’s coasts and land borders, the possibility of a showdown between the United States and Iran looks higher than ever.

However, little of this urgency is felt in the Iranian government. Rather than quickly agreeing to President Trump’s demands, Iranian diplomats are insisting on the torturously slow diplomatic dance that has marked previous talks with the United States; This led Trump to declare on Friday that the Iranians were not negotiating “in good faith.”

But Iranian experts say the kinds of concessions Trump is seeking for Iran’s leadership on nuclear energy and the country’s role in the Middle East undermine the Islamic Republic’s ethos and the project it has created for decades.

“As an Islamic theocracy, Iran serves as a role model for the Islamic world. And as a role model, we cannot surrender,” said Hamid Reza Taraghi, head of international relations for Iran’s Islamic Coalition Party (Hezb-e Motalefeh Eslami).

He also added: “We are strong enough to respond militarily and make the enemy regret attacking us.”

Although another round of talks this week ended with no resolution, the United States has completed a buildup that involved sending more than 150 aircraft to the region, along with roughly a third of all active U.S. ships.

Observers say these forces are inadequate for anything beyond a short campaign of a few weeks or a high-intensity kinetic attack.

It is certain that Iran will retaliate, possibly against an aircraft carrier or the many US military bases in the region. While such an attack is unlikely to destroy its target, it could harm or at least disrupt operations, showing that “American power is not untouchable,” former Iranian parliamentarian Hooshang Talé said.

Talé added that Tehran could also mobilize paramilitary groups it has trained in the region, including Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis. As the United States remains engaged in the Middle East, other U.S. rivals such as Russia and China may seize the opportunity to launch their own campaigns elsewhere in the world, he said.

“From this perspective, Iran is not acting completely alone,” Tale said. “Indirect alignment among America’s enemies will have a cascading effect, even without a formal alliance.”

The United States demands that Iran abandon all nuclear enrichment and give up its current stockpile of enriched uranium to halt its path to bomb development. Iran has repeatedly stated that it does not want to build nuclear weapons and that nuclear enrichment will only be carried out for peaceful purposes.

The Trump administration has also talked about restricting Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for proxy groups in the region such as Hezbollah, but these were not coherent demands. Tehran insists the talks should be limited to the nuclear issue.

Following indirect talks on Thursday, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, the mediator of the talks in Geneva, praised what he described as “significant progress”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said there were “constructive suggestions”.

But Trump struck an angry tone when speaking to reporters on Friday.

“We’re not very happy with the way they’re negotiating, and they can’t have nuclear weapons again,” he said.

Trump also downplayed concerns that the attack could escalate into a longer conflict.

“I guess you could say there’s always a risk. You know, when there’s war, there’s risk in everything, both good and bad,” Trump said.

Three days ago, in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, he said: “My preference is to resolve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain: I will never allow the country that has been the world’s number one sponsor of terrorism to have nuclear weapons, I cannot allow that.”

There are other signs that an attack may be imminent.

On Friday, the US Embassy in Israel allowed staff to leave the country if they wish. This follows an earlier move this week to evacuate dependents at the embassy in Lebanon. Other countries followed suit, including Britain, which withdrew its embassy staff from Tehran. Meanwhile, many airlines suspended their services to Israel and Iran.

US military action could come at a sensitive time for Iran’s leadership.

The country’s armed forces are still recovering from a June war with Israel and the United States that killed more than 1,200 people in Iran and injured more than 6,000. 28 people died and dozens were injured in Israel.

The unrest in January, when security forces killed between 3,000 and 30,000 protesters (estimates vary widely), means the government has no shortage of enemies at home. Meanwhile, long-term sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy and left most Iranians desperately poor.

Despite these vulnerabilities, observers say U.S. reinforcements would likely cause Iran to put its foot down; especially because Iran does not want to set a precedent of giving up its positions at the barrel of the US gun.

Other demands of the USA will constitute a red line. Missile arsenal, for example, is considered the main enemy against the United States and Israel, said Rose Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at the Defense Priorities think tank.

“Iran’s deterrence policy is defense through attrition. They act like hedgehogs so the bear drops them… Missiles are quills,” he said, adding that the strategy means Iran cannot fully defend against the US but can inflict pain.

At the same time, although mechanisms exist to monitor nuclear enrichment, reining in Tehran’s support for proxy groups will be a much more difficult matter to verify.

But the bigger problem is that Iran does not trust Trump to follow through on where the negotiations have reached.

After all, it was Trump who withdrew from an Obama-era deal designed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, despite widespread consensus that Iran was complying with the deal.

Trump and many other critics have complained that Iran is unrestrained in its other “malicious activities,” such as support for militant groups in the Middle East and development of ballistic missiles. The Trump administration has embarked on a policy of “maximum pressure” hoping to bring Iran to its knees, but this has been met with what Iran watchers call maximum resistance.

In June, it joined Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities; however, this did not result in the Islamic Republic returning to negotiations and accepting Trump’s terms. And he spoke wistfully about regime change.

“Trump has worked hard to make the U.S. threats credible by concentrating this massive military force offshore, and they are extremely credible at this point,” Kelanic said.

“But Iran also needs to make its assurances that the US will not attack Iran if it accepts US demands credible.”

Former parliamentarian Talé put it differently.

“If Iranian diplomats show flexibility, Trump will be even more encouraged,” he said. “This is why Iran, as a sovereign nation, cannot surrender to any foreign power, including America.”