China’s Two Sessions to reveal Xi’s economic and defence plans as military purge casts shadow | China
Thousands of delegates will arrive in Beijing this week for China’s annual Two Sessions, one of the most important events on the country’s political calendar and a rare opportunity for global media to see Beijing’s top lawmakers up close.
The “Two Sessions” are concurrent meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body.
Of the two meetings, the NPC, China’s legislature, is the more important. It has the power to amend the Constitution, appoint people to political offices, enact laws and approve the budget. It was the NPC that amended China’s constitution to remove presidential term limits in 2018, and it was the NPC that elected Xi Jinping to the office for an unprecedented third term in 2023.
However, in modern China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is more powerful than any other organ of the state, and the NPC is essentially a stamp of approval parliament, never rejecting any item on its agenda. The actual decision-making process is done by the CCP in separate meetings.
Still, the opening of the CPPCC on Wednesday and the NPC on Thursday will be full of pomp and circumstance. The NPC is the forum where the government will publish its annual work report outlining its targets for the coming year, including the GDP growth target, which is expected to fall below 5% for the first time this year.
But this year’s session is also particularly important because it marks the official launch of the 15th five-year plan, Beijing’s economic planning document outlining its priorities for 2026-2030.
“This will be an unusually intense Two Sessions,” he says Yakut OsmanSenior policy advisor at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
“The Two Sessions generally tell us what Beijing wants to do over the next 12 months. This year they will also outline a much grander strategy to navigate a defining period of geopolitical and technological change,” he says.
Osman added that there would likely be a “mismatch” in the priorities of the government’s annual work report and the long-term goals of the five-year plan, which would “make clear that Beijing sees innovative capacity and the ability to defend itself from US pressures as China’s real structural problem.”
The 2026-2030 window is an important time period for China’s strategic goals. Xi wants the military to be able to launch a successful attack on Taiwan by 2027, and to support this scenario he needs an economy that is self-sufficient and resilient to possible sanctions. Taiwan is a self-governing island that Beijing claims as part of its territory, and has not ruled out using force to “reunify” it with the CCP-ruled People’s Republic of China.
To this end, the 15th five-year plan is expected to focus on industrial self-sufficiency. China wants to increase its ability to produce the most advanced semiconductors domestically by reducing the strength of US sanctions designed to hinder China’s technological progress, especially when it comes to artificial intelligence and military applications.
But the specter of recent high-level purges in the military will loom over any defense strategy. Xi recently placed his top general, Zhang Youxia, under investigation on suspicion of corruption; It was a highly unusual move following years of growing turmoil in the world’s largest armed forces. A. last article The report, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC, found that more than 100 senior officials have been purged or potentially liquidated since 2022; researchers described this figure as “staggering.”
On Thursday, the NPC’s leadership body announced that it had revoked the NPC membership of nine military delegates without giving any reason for the expulsions, according to a report by Xinhua news agency.
“Xi’s military purges will leave vacant seats once held by senior officers, a reminder that political loyalty is non-negotiable and even top generals can be expendable if they don’t please the top leader,” he says. Neil ThomasHe is a researcher on Chinese politics at the Asian Community think tank.
Apart from the political intrigue, this year’s Two Sessions will reveal a number of economic indicators for the year ahead. The most important of these is the annual GDP growth target, which is expected to be around 4.5% this year, falling below 5% for the first time. Analysts say this reflects a shift in Beijing’s priorities towards technological self-reliance, even at the expense of rapid growth.
This may be in line with what Beijing sees as an uncertain geopolitical future, especially for the United States. But China’s internal problems, such as high levels of youth unemployment and an aging society, will not be solved by doubling down on niche, specialist sectors; Other important parts of the economy, such as real estate, continue to shake.
