No ‘war on drugs,’ Mexican president vows, but crackdown on narcos signals turnaround

MEXICO CITY — Over the past year, Mexican troops have been deployed across the country to crack down on narco-violence, arresting legions of cartel agents, seizing tons of illegal drugs and raiding hundreds of clandestine laboratories.

Mexico bypassed the regular extradition process and sent scores of cartel suspects to the United States to face justice; This was an unprecedented step.

And last month, Mexican special forces carried out the most sensational crackdown on organized crime in recent memory, tracking down and killing Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho,” the long-elusive boss of the notorious Jalisco New Generation cartel.

Return to the war on drugs?

President Claudia Sheinbaum insists this is not possible.

“We want peace, not war,” he said last week. “The strategy has not changed”

Many beg to differ.

Opposition lawmakers and others are celebrating Sheinbaum’s virtual break with the controversial “embrace not bullets” approach of Sheinbaum’s predecessor and mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

López Obrador abandoned the militarized “war on drugs” of previous administrations; He said it only fueled violence and turned Mexico into a “graveyard.” Instead, it focused on attacking the root causes of crime, including poverty and limited opportunities for young people.

Many mocked his experiment as a failure: Murders and disappearances reached record levels during López Obrador’s six years in office, and cartels expanded their spheres of influence.

Oseguera’s downfall is seen as an exclamation point signaling the end of what critics see as López Obrador’s passive approach.

“The end of hugs,” read the headline in Mexico’s Excélsior newspaper.

“The idea that organized crime would retreat in the face of official inaction or benevolence has merely allowed criminal groups to grow exponentially, giving them a sense of impunity,” Excélsior columnist Pascal Beltrán del Río wrote.

For Sheinbaum, Oseguera’s ouster may have had another effect: fending off President Trump’s oft-stated desire to intervene in Mexico’s cartel wars, a red line for this president. He calls direct US involvement a violation of Mexico’s sovereignty.

Intelligence from Washington was used in the operation targeting Oseguera, but no US soldiers participated in the raid, according to US and Mexican officials.

“Sheinbaum showed that cooperation and intelligence sharing can produce the results Trump wants, and that Mexican troops are equipped to take on high-value targets,” said David Mora of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based nonprofit focused on conflict resolution.

Although his heavy-handed tactics had some success, Sheinbaum did not abandon the principles of López Obrador, who remains a respected and influential figure despite his retirement.

“President Sheinbaum does not want to contradict Andrés Manuel,” said security analyst Victor Manuel Sánchez Valdés, referring to López Obrador, who founded the now dominant Morena party that Sheinbaum represents. “But at the end of the day, it is clear that ‘hugging, not shooting’ does not produce the desired results.”

Despite Oseguera’s killing, Sheinbaum still has a long way to go in taming the entrenched cartels. Police, judges, prosecutors and other elements of Mexico’s criminal justice apparatus are ill-equipped to confront the well-armed, billion-dollar gangs that dominate large swathes of the country.

Detractors say Sheinbaum is particularly ill-equipped to confront a key challenge: purging corrupt politicians, law enforcement and other officials, including those with ties to the ruling party. Hand-written notebooks found at Oseguera’s mountain hideout point to an institutionalized system of bribes paid regularly to officials in cooperation with the cartel.

“The government continues to protect actors with a lot of political influence,” Sánchez Valdés said. “Tolerance towards corruption continues.”

Pressure from Trump isn’t the only factor driving Sheinbaum to take decisive action against criminal organizations. While the president has an approval rating of over 70 percent, many in Mexico are fed up with widespread lawlessness.

Polls show that significant numbers of people support greater U.S. involvement in Mexico’s fight against organized crime. Some Mexicans even say they would not object to a US landing.

It’s no surprise, then, that the undisputed star of Sheinbaum’s Cabinet is Omar García Harfuch, the tough-talking security minister who is the face of the government’s anti-cartel offensive. García Harfuch has considerable street cred: He survived three gunshot wounds in a 2020 cartel assassination attempt that claimed the lives of two bodyguards and bystanders. His exploits, which often brought down cartels, became a hallmark of his rule.

García Harfuch also served as Sheinbaum’s security aide during his previous tenure as mayor of Mexico City. His administration has succeeded in reducing crime in the capital, where murders per capita are now lower than in many U.S. cities. But many questioned whether his favored techniques—which relied heavily on intelligence gathering and cooperation between law enforcement agencies—could work on a national scale. The attack on Oseguera’s hideout dramatized Sheinbaum’s willingness to accept a more kinetic approach despite the risks.

A student trains at Mexico City’s police academy. Crime in Mexico’s capital fell to record lows under Sheinbaum, and murders per capita were lower than in many U.S. cities.

(Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times)

Sheinbaum remains a staunch supporter of educational, sports and cultural activities to provide young people with alternatives to joining the cartels, which are among the country’s largest employers and glorified in ballads, TV shows and movies.

“Our idea is that young people should never consider crime as a life option,” Sheinbaum said. “Crime is the option of death.”

Mexico has largely returned to normal since Oseguera’s death and the spasm of lawlessness that followed.

But as the country prepares to host World Cup matches in Mexico City, Monterrey and Guadalajara, many people worry about new violence. Past cartel leadership vacuums have resulted in protracted power battles as possible successors of departing capos compete for control.

“Claiming that criminals have a high-level scalp will not save the government from a bad outcome,” said Mora of the International Crisis Group.

Mexicans are well aware of the risks.

“History shows us that the drop of a major drug does not reduce violence; on the contrary, violence proliferates like a bad weed,” said Rodolfo Soto, 54, a minivan driver in Puerto Vallarta.

Puerto Vallarta, a famous tourist destination in the state of Jalisco, was among the areas hardest hit by retaliatory attacks following Oseguera’s killing. The city was largely shut down as residents and tourists ran for cover and smoke from the fires darkened the Pacific landscape.

“We are all afraid that the situation may get worse and we will be left in the middle,” Soto said. “Tourism is our lifeblood here.”

One thing is clear: Few Mexicans appear to be mourning the apparent end of the era of “hugs not bullets.”

“I have never supported the ‘hugs not bullets’ policy,” said Marisol Morales, 41, an elementary school assistant principal in the Pacific port city of Manzanillo. “How can you hug people who commit crimes?”

Special C.reporter Cecilia Sánchez Vidal in Mexico City and Times staff writer Karen Mariana Cárdenas Ceballos in Los Angeles contributed to this report.