Cuban leaders signal concessions to appease Trump, but also ensure political survival

MEXICO CITY — For more than six decades, communist Cuba foiled every destabilizing measure targeted by Washington: assassination plots, trade embargoes, sabotage, travel bans and, most famously, the Bay of Pigs invasion of 1961, when Fidel Castro’s revolution was still young and the Cold War was in full swing.

Now many are wondering: Are the death knell finally sounding for the Cuban Revolution?

And is President Trump on track to achieve a goal that eluded John F. Kennedy and successor presidents: overthrowing the island’s communist rulers?

Trump has repeatedly stated that Cuba is next in his sights after his ongoing war against Iran and the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.

But many experts warn that predictions of the end of communist rule are misleading.

“A lot of people have lost their shirts over the last 67 years betting on the outcome of these guys, so I won’t go that far,” said Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s former foreign minister. “But the only way [Cuba’s government] “The way he can save himself is by doing whatever Trump and the people of Miami want them to do on the economic front in exchange for retaining political power.”

It was oil – specifically Trump’s de facto energy blockade – that finally forced Havana’s entrenched leadership to go to the negotiating table with its long-time foe in the Strait of Florida.

On Friday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel appeared on national television and confirmed that Havana was holding secret talks with the Trump administration.

Underlining the seriousness of the moment, Díaz-Canel emphasized that the talks were led by him and the “historic leader of our revolution”, Fidel’s younger brother Raúl Castro, who died in 2016.

Díaz-Canel’s words masked a painful reality for supporters of a revolution celebrated by the global left.

Mexican analyst Stephanie Henaro wrote about X: “Cuba is negotiating not out of faith, but out of breathlessness.” “When regimes are strong, they do not sit down with their historical enemies.”

In justifying the bilateral talks, the Cuban president pointed to the country’s energy collapse and noted that some regions were without electricity for more than 30 hours.

In Cuba, which has long been praised for its free education and healthcare systems, schools and hospitals are closing due to power outages. The government says the national waiting list for non-life-threatening procedures has reached almost 100,000, including more than 11,000 children.

Díaz-Canel said that there has been no fuel shipment to Cuba, which imports 60 percent of its oil, for three months.

When U.S. forces took Maduro to a New York prison, Trump cut off oil shipments from Venezuela, which had long supplied his ideological ally with crude oil under socialist rule.

Trump has strong-armed other countries, especially Mexico, into stopping sending oil to the island. He also pressured countries to deport cadres of Cuban doctors, the cornerstone of health care in much of the Americas, while providing much-needed cash to Havana.

With many Latin American countries shifting to the right in recent years, Cuba no longer enjoys the support it once had.

People at a private market in Havana watch Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel speak on television on Friday.

(Ramon Espinosa / Associated Press)

The island is experiencing its worst days since the collapse of Havana’s loyal patron, the Soviet Union, in 1991. The Communist Party survived this blow and survived a “period of special austerity” that lasted almost a decade after the loss of Moscow’s support. Still, during the special period, estimates show that adults lost an average of 12 to 20 kilos.

In recent weeks, angry Havana residents have signaled their displeasure with the blackouts with the sound of pots and pans growing louder throughout the night. Despite tight control by security services, scattered reports of violent anti-government protests have emerged.

“We are at the border: The situation is critical and unstable,” Yaima Sardiñas, a manicurist and mother of three, said by phone from Havana. “During the special period, yes, there were power outages, but it was always possible to find rice and maybe some meat. Now this is almost impossible.”

“These days you see unfortunate people rummaging through garbage on the streets. It didn’t happen during this particular period,” said Sardiñas, 42.

When Díaz-Canel announced the bilateral talks, his tone differed from his recent accusations of Washington’s “policy of stifling” and his promise of “creative resistance” to Trump’s tyranny.

The talks will likely focus on an economic and political overhaul. But far-reaching reforms would mean transforming the deeply entrenched command and control system that, although flawed, has persisted for 67 years despite unremitting pressure from Washington.

Cuban American Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump’s key man on Cuba, blamed the island’s leadership, not the US blockade, for the current dire situation.

“The humanitarian crisis is getting out of control because Cubans don’t know how to manage the economy,” Rubio said in Florida last month.

Others say such comments underestimate the consequences of the oil blockade.

“The Trump regime succeeded in crashing the economy,” said Robin Lauren Derby, a UCLA historian who follows Cuba.

Transforming Cuba’s largely state-owned system into a haven for the private sector and a welcoming destination for Cuban American entrepreneurs from Florida means displacing powerful players in Cuba’s military-industrial complex, which governs much of the economy.

Rubio talked about a gradual transition in Cuba, and even Trump, who called on Iranians to take to the streets when the United States and Israel began bombing Tehran, did not foresee a large-scale uprising.

Speculation has focused on a Venezuela-style scenario in which the current leadership is somehow sidelined in favor of a Trump-friendly replacement.

But many experts see little parallel with Venezuela, which, unlike Cuba, has a close history of free markets and opposition parties and lacks Cuba’s ubiquitous security architecture. And after generations of “resistance,” Cubans have a deep-seated sense of disdain for the country’s “imperialist” enemy.

“There will be no march like Cuba or Venezuela,” Derby said. “The issue of sovereignty is really important to Cubans.”

In his comments, Díaz-Canel hinted at resistance to political change. He said the talks would continue “with respect for the political systems of both states and the sovereignty and self-determination of our government.”

Children play during a school activity in a park in Havana last week.

(Ramon Espinosa / Associated Press)

Ricardo Torres, an economist at American University, said Cuba would likely be open to an expanded private sector role and offer privileged access to U.S. companies. Potentially more problematic would be calls for compensation to U.S. companies and individuals whose property was expropriated after the revolution (mostly in south Florida).

Another important factor is Florida’s Cuban American population. This party, a crucial base for the Republican Party, would likely object to leaving the current governing infrastructure in place Venezuela-style. Cuban exiles demanded multi-party elections, freedom of expression, the release of political prisoners and other reforms.

“If Trump and Rubio betray Miami, they could be in big trouble,” Castañeda said.

On the other hand, a greatly weakened Cuban government has few cards to play.

“Cuba entered these negotiations in a very weak position,” Torres said. “They will have to make concessions”

There are already some signs. Just last week, Havana announced it would release 51 prisoners “in the spirit of good will and within the framework of close and fluid relations with the Vatican.”

The Vatican, which helped mediate talks during the Obama administration that led to the U.S.-Cuban thaw, plays a similar mediating role as Trump and Havana.

On the U.S. side, some predict Trump will agree to open travel to the island, key to reviving the moribund tourism economy. Power outages and a lack of jet fuel have destroyed tourism, a major source of income.

The return of foreign visitors will be a blessing for many, including Bruno Díaz, 56, who works in the tourism industry and earns a living as a taxi driver and musician in Havana. It hasn’t worked for weeks.

“We are in such a delicate situation where people are starving, where there are so many famines, that any news of change gives us hope,” Díaz said following news of US-Cuba talks.

“We hope that this is not just talk and we will see real change soon. Because people can’t take it anymore.”

McDonnell and Linthicum reported from Mexico City, while Ceballos reported from Washington. Special correspondent Cecilia Sánchez Vidal in Mexico City contributed to this report.