Iran conflict will increase immigration crime and small boat arrivals, National Crime Agency chief warns
The leader of the National Crime Agency (NCA) has warned that the US-Israeli war against Iran could increase the number of small boats coming to the UK.
Publishing his annual assessment of the threats facing the country, NCA chief executive Graeme Biggar acknowledged that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could lead to a rise in organized immigration crime and arrivals on UK shores.
He said: “Demand for migrants to reach the UK illegally remains high and the conflict in Iran is likely to increase this challenge.”
He said such increases often follow world conflict, adding that some of it is likely to be in the form of small boats crossing the Channel.
He added: “I don’t expect a huge increase from Iran, I’m not exaggerating. But yes, some of it will be on small boats.”
Small boat arrivals rose by 13 per cent year on year in 2025 after 45,774 people made the perilous crossing to seek asylum in the UK.
The NCA said most arrivals last year came from countries in the Horn of Africa, replacing previous peaks of asylum seekers from Albania and Vietnam in recent years.
Combating organized immigration crime accounts for a quarter of the NCA’s operational activity; officers seized 533 boats or motorboats last year to prevent smugglers from profiting from arrivals.
Speaking at the NCA’s headquarters in Stratford on Tuesday, Mr Biggar also warned that technology was accelerating crime, with criminals turning to increasingly sophisticated techniques to traffic drugs and run criminal networks.
Synthetic opioids pose the greatest risk; Nitazenes are now linked to 1,000 deaths in England in two and a half years.
These powerful drugs, some up to 500 times more powerful than morphine, are often smuggled into the UK by post and found in adulterated heroin or counterfeit pills sold online. Many are so dangerous that even the smallest amounts can lead to overdose.
“Synthetic opioids pose the greatest risk. Nitazenes have been linked to 1,000 deaths since they first became widely available in the UK in June 2023. This is an extraordinary figure,” Mr Biggar said.
Deaths from nitrite in the UK decreased slightly from 435 deaths in 2024 to 359 in 2025; but Mr Biggar acknowledged the actual numbers may be higher due to testing to keep up.
Half of murders, burglaries and robberies in Britain are drug-related, the NCA chief has said.
While drug-related deaths have doubled in ten years, cocaine-related deaths have increased tenfold. Ketamine abuse is also increasing; The number of adults seeking treatment for ketamine use has increased tenfold in a decade.
But traffickers use complex scientific methods to chemically bind drugs to various substances such as charcoal, cardboard boxes, plastic or glue.
Sometimes chemists fly internationally to bind drugs, including cocaine and nitrite, and extract them again at the other end.
Mr Biggar said: “While we must respond to a range of new challenges, we cannot take our eyes off the drugs menace.
“It’s always caused a lot of damage, it’s evolving rapidly and we need to get on top of it.”
Mr Biggar said the threat of organized crime had increased in the past year as technology allowed criminals to get “smarter, faster and more connected with each other and with victims” and that advances in technology were “reshaping crime itself”.
Recent cyber attacks on Transport for London, Legal Aid Agency, Marks and Spencer, Co-op, Kido Nurseries and Jaguar Land Rover mean it is not enough for businesses to secure their systems, they also need to address how staff can be manipulated, he added.
Responding to the NCA’s annual review, security minister Dan Jarvis said: “The threat from serious and organized crime is evolving rapidly, with criminals collaborating across borders and online to target the British public at scale. “As they step up their activities, we must do the same.
“We are leading a major international effort to crack down on smuggling gangs and hit drug traffickers harder than ever through tighter port controls and recording drug seizures.”
