Historic election: parties race to secure second place
In the first major electoral test of One Nation’s growing popularity, a one-horse state political battle has captured national attention.
While Labor is expected to easily win the South Australian state election on Saturday, opinion polls show One Nation taking 22 to 28 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Liberal vote by 14 to 20 per cent.
Flinders University associate professor of public policy Josh Sunman said One Nation’s discipline was the surprise story of the campaign.
“It was really educational for me when we got to the final week and the fact that there was only one negative candidate story on One Nation and that (candidate Aoi Baxter) had maybe flown in from Sydney,” he said.
Hours after he made the comment, the ABC reported that a UK court had issued an arrest warrant for Mr Baxter on charges of sexually touching a woman without her consent, which Baxter was quickly denied by One Nation.
Mr. Sunman said One Nation provides targeted messaging and candidate discipline and that “I expect a lot more candidate scandals and collapses.”
Meanwhile, he said the Liberals had run a rather dismal campaign.
“They have to balance taking on Labor with One Nation, which has exhausted their primaries, but they have failed to develop a coherent campaign narrative,” he said.
But Mr Sunman said Liberal leader Ashton Hurn had done an admirable job of trying to present a credible alternative prime minister.
In the latest poll published on Friday, YouGov predicts a 59-41 Labor win on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation; This victory is in favor of Labor by a margin of 4.4 per cent.
YouGov’s Paul Smith said Labor was poised to win the biggest two-party preferential vote in SA history, while the Liberals were on course for 19 per cent, their worst result in any state or federal election since the coalition was formed.
“One Nation’s rise to 22 per cent puts them in second place in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas,” he said.
Federal leader Pauline Hanson said the major parties were concerned about the One Nation factor and agreed the election would be a barometer of the party’s popularity.
When someone shouted at her: “Pauline Hanson, you are not wanted here”, she told 2GB radio on Friday: “I’ve been here for the last week and I’ve just been in a voting booth… the feeling on the ground is extremely strong.”
Clem Macintyre, retired professor of politics at the University of Adelaide, said the rise of One Nation had the potential to create a turning point in Australian politics and end two-party politics at the federal level.
“If they make a breakthrough, they will have to work hard to become a more serious and viable alternative government,” he said.
“There is more disillusionment with the major parties… I think we can still say that One Nation is the party of disaffected voters.”
Mr Sunman said Mr Malinauskas had performed creditably throughout the campaign but there were warning signs for Labor.
“Maybe he seems a little too arrogant at times and there are echoes of the previous (Mike) Rann era.”
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