Election SA. Amid the Hanson hysteria, it’s business as usual

Between the headlines of ‘Hanson rise’, ‘Labor landslide’ and ‘Liberal bloodbath’, the reality of the South Australian election will not change much. The recently anointed Croweater Kim Wingerei reports*.

As widely expected, Labor’s Peter Malinauskas will continue as Premier of South Australia for another four years.

Labor will have at least five more seats in the new Parliament, with a primary vote of 37.8% to 2.3%. As the remaining 35% of the votes are counted (and for some voters) preference distributions will change.is likely to be explained), but at this stage the selection guru Anthony Green It gives 57.8% to the workforce, an increase of 3.2% compared to 2022, There are almost no landslides.

Pauline Hanson One Nation (PHON) has indeed taken off, receiving 19.6% more primary votes than four years ago. However, there is a more modest increase of 6.6% in the seats PHON is running in 2022. A big wave rather than a ripple.

One of the reasons the orange team has fewer seats than the Liberals, who still have at least four seats in the new parliament, is that they are spread so thinly and are fighting for every seat. Last time there were 16 and during Peter Marshall’s reign there were 25.

The demise of the Liberals is of course the big story of the election, with a 16.6% loss of the vote. Less than a fifth of South Australian voters put the Liberals first on their ballot paper, and in Metropolitan seats the situation is even worse, with a drop of 18.2%.

While Liberal leader Ashton Hurn remained optimistic, declaring on Saturday night that “we will come back stronger than ever”, this is a bloodbath by another name.

Legislative Council

It won’t be that simple as the upper house won’t have a clear majority for Labor.

This time Labor won at least four of the 11 seats in the election and is likely to win another, reaching a maximum of 10 members in total and still falling short of an absolute majority in the 22-seat parliament.

The only seat in doubt is likely to go to Labor or the Greens. Either way, this will leave Labor with plenty of options for negotiating with all six of the Liberals, possibly three of One Nation, or a bloc of three or four of the Greens/Independents.

In short, South Australia will face an (almost) all-powerful Labor Party and a fragmented opposition for the next four years. What he will do with this power is anyone’s guess.

* Based on 65% of votes counted on Monday evening, March 23.

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