Gulf states’ scepticism over alleged US-Iran talks signals a distrust of Trump | US-Israel war on Iran

Shortly after Donald Trump said this week that the United States was engaged in “robust talks” with Iran to end the war, Qatar took the unusual step of walking away from so-called diplomatic talks.

At a briefing Tuesday night, Majed al-Ansari said Qatar was not involved in any mediation efforts, then added as a clarification: “If there is any.”

This signaled a notable break from Qatar’s historic and recurring position as the chief mediator in the Middle East and broader regional conflicts. Whether it is negotiations between Israel and Hamas, talks between the United States and the Taliban, or an attempt to broker peace deals in Lebanon and Sudan, holding diplomatic summits has been a cornerstone of the tiny Gulf state’s international clout.

But this time, for the past three or more weeks, Qatar and other Gulf states have found themselves on the front lines of the war after mediation efforts to prevent conflict were ultimately rejected by the United States.

The United States has attacked Iran twice during negotiations aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear program, supported and led by the Gulf nation of Oman. Last June, the talks were stopped due to the US and Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Talks revived this February quickly became useless after US President Donald Trump began bombing Tehran with Israel before the latest round of meetings.

Since the start of the war, Gulf states have had to spend billions of dollars to thwart daily attacks by Iran’s missiles and drones; their economies and sovereignty suffered an increasingly serious blow.

Analysts said their reluctance to support purported ceasefire efforts reflected both the heavy toll they continue to take from the war and lingering doubt about whether Trump’s peace talk was genuine or merely another obstacle to escalation.

“They were burned by their previous experience,” said Bilal Saab, senior managing director of the Trends US advisory group and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration.

He added: “They thought they were playing a useful mediating role before – until they realized it was all in vain. Not to mention that they were directly involved in the war and were still being attacked by the Iranians. So there’s a lot of pent-up frustration and frustration that’s affecting their willingness and perhaps even their ability to mediate on any issue.”

Analysts said a lack of clarity over alleged talks between the United States and Iran and deep distrust of the Trump regime have left Gulf leaders reluctant to put themselves at the forefront of talks for now.

It is still unclear exactly who the US met with to present its peace proposal in Iran. Following the assassination of several high-ranking officials of the Iranian regime and the newly appointed supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei still being hidden from the public, fundamental questions remain about who calls the shots in the Iranian regime.

On Wednesday night, the Iranian regime publicly rejected Trump’s 15-point plan to end the war, presented to Tehran through Pakistani generals, as “highly unreasonable” and put forward its own strikingly different proposal.

The concern to provide legitimacy to talks that would ultimately lead to escalation of tensions and even the assassination of more Iranian leaders was also recognized as a regional problem. Even as Trump insisted that progress was being made in the negotiations, thousands of US troops were being deployed to the Middle East, and there was a strong fear among Gulf states that they were being played as pawns in the US and Israel’s Middle East game.

Saab said: “There is still a strong possibility that this is a ruse in preparation for another military operation or that the US wants to conduct negotiations under the threat of a land invasion.”

Iranian diplomatic sources expressed similar fears. A source said “there is a high level of skepticism” about the potential for peace talks to be held in Islamabad. “As we have seen in our previous talks with the United States, they used this to attack and kill our leaders. Distrust is very high.”

Kuwait University professor and Chatham House researcher Bader al-Saif said it was difficult for Gulf countries to ignore that “every time the word negotiation is used by the Trump administration, we unfortunately fall under the heading of war.”

“Trump has his own sense of long-winded, loosely defined negotiation,” he added. “The situation is still very fluid at the moment. I think the Gulf countries will enter into negotiations when they feel they have something real to offer.”

But he stressed that their reluctance to get involved in a possible Trump charade was balanced by a recognition of the critical importance of shaping and influencing any realistic peace negotiations that could jeopardize the future of the Gulf.

The prospect of Trump ending the war with the current Iranian regime less than 100 miles from some Gulf capitals—potentially more angry and vindictive than before, and with a keen awareness of the damage its missiles and drones could inflict on billions of dollars of infrastructure and industry—is widely seen as an existential threat to future economic ambitions.

There is also still no clear solution on how to end Iran’s highly successful dominance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the Gulf’s oil and gas is exported to the world and which remains the sword of Damocles over the region.

But a protracted US-led war for the elusive goal of regime change in Iran has also left Gulf economies withered and vital energy and water infrastructure in danger of weakening; This would come at a heavy cost to civilians. The threat that Tehran would mobilize armed groups and sleeper cells loyal to Iran in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait was also omnipresent, with the potential to trigger a destabilizing internal proxy war.

Al-Saif said it is vital for the Gulf countries to be at the table if any peace talks take place, while also calling on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the political grouping of the Gulf countries, to launch their own separate negotiations with Iran to ensure their interests are protected in the long term.

“They should not rely solely on the United States for negotiations,” Al-Saif said. “They should go and make a deal for themselves with Iran. This was not our war, and if we can protect ourselves from further exposure, we should do so to protect our own national interests.”

Al-Saif said the suggestion of Pakistan, an Islamic country that has a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and close ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the most likely venue to host and hold peace talks was relatively positive for the Gulf countries. But others have questioned whether Islamabad has the same economic power and leverage over Iran as Gulf states such as Qatar and the UAE, which hold billions of dollars of Iranian funds in their banks.

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, emphasized that beyond securing trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling its nuclear program, there is no reason to expect Trump to prioritize the Gulf’s needs in any negotiations with Iran, despite long-standing security agreements.

Meanwhile, Iran was unlikely to agree to give up the missiles that had done so much damage to the Gulf states and could be an effective tool for gaining advantage in the future.

“Gulf states could easily be thrown under the bus again by Trump; Trump just isn’t that deeply interested in them beyond his personal sources of business opportunity,” Vatanka said.

While Vatanka emphasized that rebuilding trust between Iran and the Gulf countries will require seismic diplomacy skills, he said he expects them to ultimately draw their own path with Tehran, as they did before the war started.

“No matter what happens, these will still be frontline states. Iran is just across the waterway and they are not a fortress,” Vatanka added. “So, once the attacks are over, the Gulf states will have to decide: Are there ways they can push this regime in a different direction?”