Trump succession race heats up as Iran war tests Vance, Rubio
The two, widely seen as potential successors to Trump, have turned to still-developing negotiations to end the war at a time when the Republican Party is already weighing its post-Trump future.
While Vance took a cautious approach, reflecting his skepticism of prolonged U.S. military involvement, Rubio took a stance close to Trump’s hawkish stance and emerged as one of the administration’s most vocal defenders of the campaign.
Trump said both men were involved in efforts to force Iran to accept U.S. demands to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and allow oil traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
With the next presidential election set for 2028 and term limits preventing Trump from running again, the president has privately posed the succession question to allies and advisers, asking “JD or Marco?”, two people familiar with his views said. He said he asked. The outcome of the US military operation, now in its fifth week, could shape the two men’s 2028 prospects, political analysts and Republican officials said. A quick end to the war in favor of the United States could strengthen Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser and could be seen as a reliable aide during the crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance room to argue that Trump is reflecting the anti-war instincts of his base without clearly breaking with the president. Trump’s own position is also at stake. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% in recent days, the lowest since he returned to the White House, according to a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed last week, fueled by rising fuel prices and widespread discontent over the Iran war.
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Some Republicans say they are closely watching which senior aides Trump supports as the Iran conflict continues. Some see signs that Trump is leaning towards Rubio but say he could change his mind quickly. “Everyone is watching Trump’s body language toward Rubio and not seeing the same with Vance,” said one Republican with close ties to the White House.
The White House rejected the idea that Trump was signaling a preference.
“No amount of wild media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration’s mission to fight for the American people,” spokesman Steven Cheung said.
FROM TRUMP’S RIVALS TO THEIR POSSIBLE LEGACIES
Vance, 41, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has long opposed U.S. involvement in foreign wars. His public comments on Iran have been limited and measured, and Trump has stated that the two have “philosophical differences” on the conflict.
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Vance, who once described himself as a “never Trumper,” wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in 2023 stating that Trump’s best foreign policy was not to start any wars during his first four years in office, from 2017 to 2021. The White House has downplayed any disagreements between the president and vice president. Standing next to Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month, Vance said he supported Trump’s handling of the war and agreed with him that Iran should not obtain nuclear weapons.
Vance could take a more direct role in the negotiations if Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
“Vice President Vance is proud to be part of a highly effective team that has achieved incredible success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous under President Trump’s bold leadership,” a spokesperson for Vance said. A senior White House official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive issue, said Trump tolerates ideological differences as long as aides remain loyal, adding that Vance’s skeptical views help inform Trump about where some of his voter base is.
A person familiar with Vance’s views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the November midterm elections before deciding whether to run in 2028. Vance won the straw poll at the annual meeting of the Conservative Political Action Conference, with nearly 53% of more than 1,600 attendees voting in his favor as the next Republican nominee. Results released Saturday showed Rubio gaining ground, finishing second with 35% of the vote, up just 3% last year.
Rubio, 54, has said he would not run for president if Vance ran, and sources familiar with Rubio’s views say he would be happy to be Vance’s running mate.
But any perceived weakness from Vance could lead Rubio and other Republicans to pursue the proposals.
“Trump has a long memory,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And he could call out Vance for his lack of loyalty. And if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him if he doesn’t get the president’s approval.”
Trump floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting it would be difficult to defeat them.
“Trump doesn’t want to appoint anyone,” a senior White House official said.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 79 percent of Republicans had a positive view of Vance, while 19 percent had an unfavorable opinion. While 71% of participants have a positive opinion of Rubio, 15% have a negative opinion.
By comparison, 79 percent of Republicans view Trump favorably, while 20 percent view him unfavorably.
Rubio, whose 2016 presidential dreams were dashed after a bitter confrontation with Trump, has long since put aside any friction with the president.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said Rubio “has a great relationship, both professionally and personally” with Trump’s team. Rubio and the White House were forced to engage in damage control after angering some conservative supporters of Trump when he suggested Israel was pushing the United States into war. But in the weeks since, Trump has praised Rubio’s efforts.
“He hasn’t given it a second thought,” a senior State Department official said when asked if Rubio was concerned that a protracted war could damage his political future.
DIFFERENCES ON THE SCREEN
Conservative leader Matt Schlapp, who runs CPAC, said the Iran campaign will have major political consequences.
“If it’s seen as successful in getting the job done…I think people will be rewarded politically for doing the right thing,” Schlapp said. “If it continues like this… I think politics is difficult.”
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Republicans broadly support U.S. military strikes on Iran, with 75% approving, compared to just 6% of Democrats and 24% of independents.
The contrast between Rubio and Vance was on display at Thursday’s televised Cabinet meeting.
Rubio defended Trump’s attack on Iran with all his might. “He will not leave such a danger in place,” the Minister of Foreign Affairs said.
Vance was more measured and focused on options to denuclearize Iran. He closed his speech by wishing Christians and US soldiers in the Gulf a blessed Holy Week and Easter.
“We continue to have your back,” he told the soldiers, “and we will continue to support you every step of the way.”
