WTI, Brent as Yemen’s Houthis enter Israel-Iran war
Smoke billows from the smokestacks of an oil refinery in Linden, New Jersey, on March 18, 2026.
Kena Betancur | AFP | Getty Images
Oil rose Monday as Yemeni Houthis fired missiles at Israel and US President Donald Trump reportedly wants to seize Iranian oil; This deepens concerns about increasing risks to energy flows in the Middle East.
According to data from LSEG, May contracts of Brent crude oil increased by 3.2% to $116.12 per barrel in the first hours of Asia, while the international benchmark index is heading towards a monthly record rise.
US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3.4% to $102.96 per barrel.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, Trump said his preferred option in Iran would be to “buy oil” and likened it to previous U.S. actions in Venezuela, where Washington effectively gained control over the country’s oil sector following the capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro.
Trump’s remarks come as the conflict between US-Israeli forces and Iran enters its fifth week, with attacks spreading across the region, increasing risks to energy infrastructure and leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
Oil prices since the beginning of the year
Yemen’s Houthis said they launched missiles at Israel on Saturday, marking their first direct involvement in the US-Israeli war against Iran.
The group fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at sensitive Israeli military targets in support of Hezbollah forces in Iran and Lebanon, spokesman Yahya Saree said in a post on channel X.
The attack indicates an escalation of the conflict that started when the USA and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said global stocks were starting to reflect a scenario where oil prices and interest rates would be “higher for a long time” as the risk of a protracted conflict increases.
He warned that an ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deepen the market pullback and raise recession risks, while uncertainty around the conflict, including the possibility of further US intervention, could keep volatility high until oil flows normalise.
“The speed and magnitude of the move underscores how quickly energy markets are repricing geopolitical risk, challenging previous efforts to keep both oil and bond markets stable and reinforcing the risk of continued disruption in the Strait,” Yardeni said in a note published Monday. he wrote.
Quantum Strategy strategist David Roche said markets were pricing in an increasingly aggressive U.S. response, including a “shoes on the ground” and a move to seize Iran’s key export hub on Kharg Island, through which roughly 90% of the country’s oil passes.
He warned that such a step would effectively cut off Iran’s dollar revenues but risk triggering full-scale escalation, with Tehran likely to retaliate by targeting critical infrastructure in the Gulf.
This increase could quickly spread across global supply routes. Roche pointed out the fragility of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which carries about 5 million barrels of oil a day to the Red Sea, and warned that any disruption at the Bab al-Mandeb crossing point, where the Houthis operate in Yemen, could seriously restrict exports.
He added that even if alternative routes through the Suez Canal were used, capacity could be sharply reduced, potentially taking 4 to 5 million barrels of oil per day off the market.
—CNBC’s Anniek Bao contributed to this report.
