DAN HODGES: Iran has won and Donald Trump has lost. His war has only emboldened the regime and a new generation of radicals, terrorists and sympathisers. And that only scratches the surface of what’s to come…

This morning, there are still many unanswered questions about last night’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict.

But if this truly heralds the end of the 2026 US/Iran war, as seems likely, one thing is clear. Iran won.

When the bombing began, many observers had difficulty determining what Donald Trump’s war objectives were, given the seemingly inconsistent nature of the President’s goals and the fact that they change daily. But if you set aside the hyperbolic and increasingly implausible rhetoric, a serious accounting of the administration’s stated primary objectives reveals that they have failed to secure almost any of them.

At the top of the list was regime change, aided and supported by the Iranian people. However, as of this morning, one of the world’s most brutal and oppressive regimes continues to exist.

As far as anyone can determine, the late 86-year-old Supreme Leader was replaced by his son several years earlier than planned. Yes, the Iranian people really took to the streets. Not to rise up against oppressors, but to create human shields around the energy facilities and infrastructure that Trump threatens to wipe out from the face of the earth.

The second goal was the complete destruction of the Iranian army. However, in the hours immediately before and after the ceasefire, Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar announced that they had to repel ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran.

Iran’s military is so powerful that even Trump had to admit that the risk of putting the US boots on the ground is very high. Supposedly completely destroyed, the Iranian navy continued to escort certain ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s claim that Iran’s air defenses were so severely damaged that “no one even shot at us” was followed 48 hours later by the shooting down of a US F-15 jet and an A-10 ground attack plane.

Then there was Iran’s nuclear program. Trump previously claimed it would be destroyed in June 2025. He later changed course when the war began, sending aides to claim that Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making materials.”

Smoke is rising after yesterday’s attacks on Tehran. At the top of Trump’s wish list was regime change. But as of this morning, one of the world’s most repressive regimes remains in existence

This changed again as the war progressed; The administration wavered between insisting that the bombing had again neutralized the threat and briefing that plans were being put in place to seize the remaining nuclear material with special forces. When the ceasefire went into effect, all Trump could say on the matter was “it’s going to be taken care of perfectly.”

And of course there was the ultimate goal; Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This has indeed been achieved. But only by giving Iran the right to collect ‘tolls’ from ships passing through there. And so, at the end of a month-long war (sorry, ‘trip’) that claimed the lives of 15 soldiers, 500 wounded, and the destruction of dozens of aircraft, radar sites, and other vital military installations in the United States at a conservative cost of $800 million (before factoring in the cost of military operations), what did Donald Trump actually achieve?

He managed to transform the world’s most vital maritime artery into a magnificent Dartford Tunnel.

And that only scratches the surface of the blood and treasure spent feeding Trump’s egomania.

The Iranian regime was not only left where it was, it was also emboldened.

Every poet, troubadour, and street musician in the Middle East is currently writing new poems to commemorate Iran’s heroic victory over the Great Satan. Words that will energize a new generation of radicals, terrorists and sympathizers.

In a region where many states previously viewed the United States as their protector, former allies are now counting the cost of an alliance that left 30 dead and hundreds injured.

In Israel, which sees this conflict as their best and perhaps last opportunity to eliminate the biggest threat to their existence, criticism is already increasing with the statement of opposition leader Yair Lapid: ‘There has never been such a diplomatic disaster in our history.’

Meanwhile, here in Britain we are also counting the costs of a war in which our Prime Minister insists we are not taking part. NATO, the defense alliance that has kept us safe for 80 years, is in ruins with Trump actively advocating withdrawal.

And even if this were just another one of his empty threats, it seems inconceivable that Vladimir Putin would pass up the opportunity to stress test the remaining years of his murky presidency.

Meanwhile, for the first time in our history, our Armed Forces were humiliated in a conflict in which they allegedly did not fight.

The Royal Navy’s inability to deploy a single reliable destroyer to defend British sovereignty under attack demonstrated the dismal state of our military. This, combined with the total planning failure of our government and armed forces chiefs, saw HMS Dragon take three weeks to even arrive on station.

Another intelligence failure failed to predict Iran’s ability to target the UK’s other province, Diego Garcia; Meanwhile, ministers tried to hide this attack from Parliament and the public.

The state of our air defenses is chronic, and has been compounded by the moral bankruptcy that has emerged when Keir Starmer allowed US bombers to strike Iran from southern England, while simultaneously pledging to stay out of conflict and claiming these strikes were vital to our own defence.

To be fair, Starmer is not the only British politician to emerge with a tarnished reputation in the past month. Kemi Badenoch showed terrible judgment by initially approving the US strikes, then flip-flopping when she saw public opinion turn decisively against them.

But his stance pales into insignificance when set against the sycophancy and politically short-sighted statements of Nigel Farage and the Reform leadership.

Even Trump’s maniacal threat to destroy “an entire civilization” wasn’t enough to make him break away from his best friend at Mar-A-Lago.

He said he would consider allowing the US to use British bases for this purpose as long as Trump could provide assurances that the ‘game will be over’.

Today, no one can be completely sure what the endgame in Iran will actually look like. But we know this. Trump has somehow managed to create a situation that puts him in competition with one of the most despotic and malignant theocracies in history. And it was defeated strategically, politically and morally.

In the coming hours and days, Trump’s cheerleaders will take to the despised MSM (mainstream media) and social media to turn defeat into victory. But now there’s nowhere they can hide. And there’s nowhere for Trump to hide.

A debate has been going on for years in the United States and around the world about where the 47th President will fit into history.

This debate is now over. When, in anger and despair, he tweeted: ‘Open the fucking Straits, you crazy bitches, or you’ll live in Hell’, it was over. Trump was beaten. And everyone from Tehran to Tennessee knew it.

In the midst of Vietnam, Lyndon B Johnson angrily and famously declared: ‘I will not go down in history as the first American President to lose the war.’ But he did. And yesterday Donald Trump became the second person to lose.