Tuesday briefing: What it might take for lasting peace between the US and Iran | Iran

Good morning. The Gulf is caught between war and peace. Despite the ceasefire agreement reached between the USA and Iran, both sides increased their threats once again. A permanent end to the violence seems possible, but a renewed round of conflict and more death, destruction and economic pain also seems possible.

US vice president JD Vance is expected to fly to Pakistan today if Iran agrees to further talks on ending the conflict. Tehran has given mixed signals about whether they will participate, and this remains unclear at the time of writing. Meanwhile, time is running out for the current two-week ceasefire, which expires in less than 48 hours.

For today’s First Edition, I talked about: Patrick WintourThe Guardian’s diplomatic editor is to understand whether a lasting peace is possible or whether it is time to prepare for a new escalation in the conflict.

five big stories

1. Iran war | JD Vance was expected to fly to Islamabad at the head of the US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to advance talks in Pakistan’s capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire approaches.

2. UK politics | Keir Starmer has accused Olly Robbins of deliberately and repeatedly obstructing the truth about the Peter Mandelson investigation scandal ahead of the sacked senior official’s high-stakes appearance before MPs on Tuesday.

3. Health | According to the study, which also raises hopes for new treatments, changes in microbes living in the gut can detect people at higher risk of Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms appear.

4. Economy | A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession” after business confidence was shaken by the US-Israeli war on Iran, analysis suggests.

5. Technology | Apple announced Monday that it has named Tim Cook’s replacement as CEO after nearly 15 years, and that head of hardware engineering John Ternus will replace him on Sept. 1. Cook will remain at the company as chairman.

In depth: ‘People really need to focus on how dangerous this situation is’

The ceasefire between the USA and Iran ends tomorrow. Each country seems to think it has the upper hand, and this fuels mutual antagonism.

Donald Trump has once again threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if Tehran does not accept his demands that the United States abandon its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite many experts warning that such an attack would be a war crime, Trump says the American military will destroy “every single power plant” and “every single bridge” unless it backs down.

Patrick Wintour told me that Trump needs a better deal than the 2015 nuclear deal reached under Barack Obama to claim victory. (It is the same agreement that the USA signed in 2018 under the Donald Trump administration.)

On the Iranian side, there is deep distrust of America’s claims of a desire for peace. The US has launched attacks during previous negotiations, and Tehran is preparing for more this time. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday: He said that the USA requested “it wasn’t serious”.

“Iran thinks it has won,” says Patrick. “They realized and proved that the Strait of Hormuz was an incredible asset to have geographically, because it captured so much of the world economy. And the Iranians can’t stop looking at oil prices; they like it to be over $100 a barrel. The war has shown so far that they can survive.”

Earlier on Tuesday, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Galibaf, who is expected to lead the Iranian delegation if the talks take place, said his country would not participate in the talks while under threat and warned that they were “ready to reveal new cards on the battlefield.”

If there is a change in Iran’s stance, Pakistan has been preparing to host both sides again since Sunday. The world will watch.

Two big talking points

Patrick said two main issues need to be resolved in the negotiations, and they are unlikely to be resolved in a single round of negotiations.

“The first is the long-running nuclear dispute: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? And will Iran retain the right to enrich uranium on its own soil?” he says. “There is a debate about how long this should be put on hold, mainly about whether it should be five years or longer, 20 years.”

The vast majority of Iran’s enrichment facilities have been destroyed by the US and Israel, but Iran is believed to still have approximately 440 kg of uranium enriched to around 60%. America wants Iran to hand it over either to Washington, D.C., or to an agreed-upon third party, such as Russia, as part of any deal, Patrick says.

“The second is about the consequences of this war. What to do about the Strait of Hormuz? Should there be a long-term procedure such that any ship passing through here pays a toll or gets permission from Iran?” he says.

But as all new American presidents have realized, reaching a lasting agreement with the Iranian regime is no easy task.

‘‘The magnitude of what can happen is huge’

A false sense of security developed around the conflict. The combative rhetoric quickly normalized and the stock markets still appear relaxed about the state of the conflict. But Patrick says there are still major risks of a future escalation.

“I find American rhetoric repulsive. But it’s also quite dangerous because it’s so apocalyptic and so repetitive, [might not] take it seriously The United States, as they show, has the power to cause tremendous destruction. There are targets they have yet to reach, including power plants, power stations and bridges that are largely intact. If they attack, the Iranians will bomb the desalination plants in the Gulf, on which these states actually depend. “You can see countries literally running out of water in a matter of days,” he says.

“The scale of what could happen is so huge and daunting that people really need to focus on how dangerous this situation is.”

The specter of a global hunger crisis also lurks. There are growing warnings about the consequences of the ongoing collapse in fertilizer supplies in the Gulf, which could lead to major food shortages around the world.

‘Everything is quite doable’

Patrick says a lasting peace is possible. Allowing Iran to have a civilian nuclear program in the future and rewarding reduced tensions with economic development could become a virtuous cycle as sanctions are lifted and Iran’s economy grows, he says. But this can only be achieved through dialogue.

Patrick explains: “The way Trump has handled his relations with Iran has been greatly affected by what the Israelis said was possible, including regime change. Now that has been proven not to work, he needs to get back to the slightly less dramatic but more important path of developing better relations with Iran and changing those relations through contact and trade rather than conflict.”

“I think all of this can be done. Iranian politicians will respond to this. So much has been done against Iran that the radicals are now in charge. This situation can be reversed if Western policy also reverses.”

What else did we read?

• Victoria Turk describes her recent attempt at publishing with a job offer and explains the situation helpfully recruitment scam to pay attention. Martin

• I never miss The pet I will never forget our series. This week’s article about Benny the cat is heart-warming. Patrick

• Philip Oltermann reviews an interesting documentary on the subject: Peter Sichel – the so-called “Jewish James Bond” – in which the CIA spy chief berates US foreign policy from beyond the grave. Martin

• Photographer Petra Collins like that refreshingly friendly about his need to paint the way we all need to breathe, his difficult childhood, and how his poor eyesight affects his work. Martin

• I really enjoyed Amy Fleming’s interview with psychiatrist Amir Levine, an expert on attachment types, about how we can all have one. healthier, happier relationships. Patrick

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