Two-week ceasefire takes effect; Israel launches record strikes on Lebanon; Iran says Strait of Hormuz closed
A group of new accounts at prediction marketplace Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for new clients.
These bets were placed even as US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric increased sharply in the hours before the two-week ceasefire was announced yesterday and there was little sign that a ceasefire agreement was imminent. Earlier in the day, Trump had warned on social media that “an entire civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not fulfill its demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by 20:00 (Eastern Time).
Analysis of public blockchain data from Polymarket using crypto analytics platform Dune shows that at least 50 accounts or wallets placed significant “Yes” bets on Tuesday just before Trump announced the ceasefire in his Truth Social post. These were the first bets made by these wallets.
One of these wallets, created around 10 a.m. (New York time) on Tuesday morning, placed nearly $US72,000 ($102,000) in bets at an average price of 8.8¢. The entry fee for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting users’ 0 percent to 100 percent chance of what they think might happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.
Another, who joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows earnings of $125,500.
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