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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures pause rally after Iran says ceasefire has been broken

U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday, backing away from a strong rally sparked by the U.S.-Iran truce, as the one-day truce became increasingly fragile ahead of planned talks.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) fell about 0.4% after closing above 1,300 points on Wednesday on expectations that the key benchmark will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) contracts fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

The US and Iran’s two-week pause in hostilities in the Middle East appears to be in jeopardy. Each side accuses the other of violating the deal, which hinges on a key condition: Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil shipping route that has been closed for weeks amid conflict.

However, Iran stopped tanker traffic once again. saying US ally Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon violated the agreement. In response, President Trump said in a post on Truth Social that U.S. troops would be kept in the region until Tehran complies with the “real deal” — “which is unlikely, then the ‘shooting’ will begin — bigger and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

Oil prices rebounded from their biggest daily level since April 2020, rising 3% as concerns about supply disruption revived. International benchmark Brent crude futures (BZ=F) and its US counterpart West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) traded around $97 per barrel.

An update on U.S. inflation is due on Thursday, along with the February edition of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of price pressure. Meanwhile, a read on weekly unemployment claims will also shed light on the health of the labor market.

LIVE 5 updates

  • Trending tickets ahead of market: Occidental, Intel and Norwegian Cruise Line

    Occidental Oil Company (OXY) The stock rose 1% before the bell on Thursday following news that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was on fragile ground, sending oil prices and energy stocks higher.

    Intel (INTC) The stock fell more than 1% in premarket hours Thursday. Shares of the chip maker closed up 11% on Wednesday as investors took interest in recent business developments.

    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Share prices of travel stocks and other travel stocks fell roughly 1% in premarket hours today as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire appeared shaky after Tehran said it had been violated. This caused an increase in oil prices and made investors nervous that fuel prices would continue to rise.

  • Investors tried to buy back $20 billion from private loan funds in the first quarter

    According to the Financial Times, wealthy investors sought to withdraw more than $20 billion from private loan funds in the first quarter; This underlined the growing pressure on the asset class that has become a dominant force on Wall Street.

    FT’s news is as follows:

    Read more here.

  • Goldman flagged that Brent would be more than $100 if Hormuz remains closed for another month

    Bloomberg reported:

    If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, Brent crude oil (BZ=F) is expected to average over $100 per barrel by 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    In a note they wrote after the start of the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, analysts, including Daan Struyven, noted Vice President JD Vance’s comments that the ceasefire was fragile and said, “The situation remains fluid.” “We continue to see risks to our price forecasts being skewed to the upside,” they said.

    The oil market is focused on the strait, which has been largely closed since the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran in February that sparked the war. Although Tehran and Washington say they have halted hostilities in exchange for reopening the pipeline, there is little clarity on what was agreed upon.

    Currently, Goldman’s base case view is that flows across the strait will begin to recover this weekend, followed by a gradual one-month recovery of Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels. According to this scenario, Brent is expected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

    Read more here.

  • Anthropical employees own more shares than expected in the tender offer

    Bloomberg reported:

    Read more here.

  • Oil recovers after biggest single-day drop since 2020

    Bloomberg reported:

    Read more here.

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