Behind China’s ‘active efforts’ for an Iran ceasefire: Business trumps politics

BEIJING — China’s ties with countries like Iran and Russia have raised expectations of a greater diplomatic role, but Beijing remains focused on protecting its own domestic interests, including global exports.

This stance underpins Beijing’s cautious acceptance of reports that it is pushing Iran towards this week’s temporary ceasefire. A. New York Times report He quoted three Iranian officials as saying that China played a role. AFP referred to US President Donald Trump.

“China did it”active efforts“To end the conflict,” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday when asked by the press about the reports. He emphasized that Foreign Minister Wang Yi did this. 26 phone calls Representatives of countries including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Germany and Iran since February 28, when the US-Israeli attacks against Iran began.

But Beijing has stopped short of endorsing direct mediation.

China calleddon’t stop now” to military operations following US-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. When asked about Iranian counter-attacks on March 3, the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not specifically mention Tehran and instead called on “all parties” to take action. prevent conflict from spreading.

“What Beijing was doing was not actually direct mediation,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“What Beijing did was actually brokerage.[ed]”He facilitated the ceasefire,” he said on CNBC’s “China Connection” program on Friday. “From that perspective, there is nothing [that has] In terms of Beijing’s foreign policy, it has changed. “This doesn’t mean Beijing is becoming more active.”

Instead, he said, Beijing is concerned about the risk of a global downturn resulting from the war that would hurt its export-based economy.

Net exports contributed nearly a third of China’s GDP last year despite rising U.S. tariffs, leaving its economy exposed to disruptions in global trade.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on Thursday: Global growth will slow down Even if the ceasefire continues, citing ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait supplies about one-fifth of global oil supply and connects the Persian Gulf off the coast of Saudi Arabia to the rest of the world. Although China is the main buyer of Iranian oil and depends on the waterway for just under half of its seaborne oil imports, this represents only 6.6% of China’s total energy consumption.

Still, China “faces tremendous pressure from rapidly rising energy costs and hopes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon,” said Hai Zhao, director of international political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-run think tank.

According to estimates, as of January, Beijing had enough crude oil stocks to meet demand for three to four months. Data shows Iran sending oil through the Strait to china since the war started.

But in China, gasoline prices rose 11% in March from the previous month, and authorities raised official domestic gasoline prices twice in six weeks. total 1,580 yuan per metric ton, or about 60 cents per US gallon. During this time, the average price in the United States increased by more than $1 per gallon.

High energy costs are also squeezing factory margins and increasing price pressures on China’s manufacturing sector.

Globally traded Brent crude oil contracts remained below $100 a barrel on Friday despite limited signs of a recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s latest attacks on a key Saudi pipeline have also reduced the kingdom’s oil production, Saudi Arabia’s state news agency said on Thursday.

China’s diplomatic position is based on its role in China We reestablished diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia three years ago, ending three decades of hostility. This move was notable given US interests in the Middle East and raised China’s profile in the region.

Pakistan, which borders China and Iran, Will host Iranian and US leaders We are in Islamabad this weekend for ceasefire talks. The extent of Beijing’s participation in the summit remains unclear.

“We support the mediation efforts of countries, including Pakistan,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao said this week. he said. He noted that Beijing called on all parties to end hostilities as soon as possible for regional peace. “China has made active efforts to this end.”

In late March, China and Pakistan published a report. Plan for “restoring peace and stability” Including a ceasefire in the Middle East, peace talks and the restoration of normal passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan this week abstained from voting on a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have encouraged countries to coordinate defense efforts to reopen the strait. Security Council members with veto power, China and Russia, objected and We plan to issue an alternative decision.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. Iran has made it clear that ships must obtain permission to pass through the strait, CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said on Thursday. social media post. “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is restricted, conditioned and controlled.”

Before the war, Iran had occasionally harassed, attacked or seized ships passing through the strait due to increased tensions with the United States.

“China welcomes the chance to present itself as a constructive and responsible force while the Trump administration is seen as a source of instability,” CFR’s Liu said.

But he warned that broader geopolitical dynamics remain unchanged.

“The fundamental structural tension between Beijing’s dependence on a rules-based global order and Washington’s growing willingness to disrupt that order remains completely unresolved,” he said.

“This is a story worth watching beyond the immediate ceasefire.”

— CNBC’s Asriel Chua contributed to this report.