What now? Failure in Islamabad leaves Trump facing unpalatable options
Tyler Pager And David E. Sanger
It was no surprise that US Vice President J.D. Vance was unable to get the concessions the United States wanted from Iran in a long negotiation session on Iran’s nuclear program.
So what happens now?
Failure leaves the Trump administration faced with several unpalatable options: a long negotiation with Tehran over the future of its nuclear program, or the possibility of a resumption of a war that has caused the biggest energy blackout of modern times and a long struggle over who will control the Strait of Hormuz.
White House officials said they would leave it to President Donald Trump, who is in Florida to attend a UFC fight over the weekend, to announce the administration’s next move. However, each of these paths brings with it significant strategic and political negativities.
Vance said little about what happened during the more than 21 hours of negotiations, suggesting that he offered the Iranians a “take it or leave it” offer to end their nuclear program for good, and they abandoned it.
“We’ve made it very clear what our red lines are, what we’re willing to accommodate them on. They chose not to accept our terms,” Vance told reporters.
In this respect, this negotiation looks little different from the deadlocked one in Geneva in late February; This led Trump to order 38 days of missile and bombing strikes across Iran, targeting missile stockpiles, military bases, and the industrial base producing new weapons in Iran.
But Trump’s claim, made repeatedly last month, was that Iran would change its mind when faced with a massive demonstration of US military might. More than 13,000 targets were hit, according to the Pentagon. The Iranians were determined to show that no American ammunition would force them to surrender.
“The heavy loss of our great-grandfathers, loved ones and compatriots has made our response stronger than ever to pursue the interests and rights of the Iranian nation,” the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement as Vance set out for the military airport to return home, empty-handed for now. he said.
Maybe this will change. But the administration’s fear of being dragged into a complex and lengthy negotiation with Iran is clearly evident. Trump believes he has emerged as the winner of the conflict, and so Iran must simply “surrender,” as special envoy Steve Witkoff put it.
This was not the case in the past. The last major agreement between Tehran and Washington, reached during the Obama administration, took two years to negotiate. And it was full of concessions, including allowing Iran to retain a small portion of its nuclear stockpile and gradually lifting restrictions on its nuclear activities by 2030, when Iran would be allowed to engage in any nuclear activities permitted under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
But the impasse Vance faced was the same one that derailed negotiations in late February and led Trump to order the attack. (This negotiation was led by Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who were present in Islamabad during the negotiations, which lasted more than 20 hours.)
At the time, the Iranians offered to “suspend” their nuclear operations for a few years, but not give up their near-bomb uranium stockpile or permanently give up uranium enrichment capacity on their own soil. For the Iranians, this is their right as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which commits them to never build nuclear weapons. To the Americans, this is what Witkoff calls “telling” that Iran always wants a ready option to build nuclear weapons, even if it never uses that option.
The thirty-eight days of war seem to have hardened rather than relaxed this view.
Trump’s real trump card comes from the fact that he can now threaten to resume major combat operations. Ultimately, the fragile two-week ceasefire expires on April 21. However, the threat of resuming combat operations may come to the fore in the coming days, but this is not a valid political choice for Trump and the Iranians know this.
Trump declared the ceasefire last week largely to ease the pain of the loss of 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies; This has led to rising oil prices, fertilizer shortages, and shortages of helium for semiconductor production, among other critical materials.
Markets rose in anticipation of an agreement, even if it was incomplete or unsatisfactory. If the war continues, markets will likely fall, shortages will worsen, and inflation will almost inevitably rise.
The most pressing issue remains: reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In their own description of the meeting, the Iranians put this first among the issues discussed.
What Vance’s outing made clear was that both sides thought they had emerged as first-round winners. Neither of them seem in the mood to compromise.
In the statement made by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “In the last 24 hours, discussions were held on various aspects of the main issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, the removal of sanctions and the complete end of the war against Iran.”
This was a notable list because closing the Bosphorus was not a problem until the war began and the Iranians decided to use their most powerful weapon of economic chaos.
Now control of the waterway is among Iran’s other demands, including that the United States pay for damage inflicted on Iran during bombings and missile strikes and the lifting of more than two decades of sanctions against the country. Washington rejected the first idea and said the second could only happen gradually, with Iran fulfilling its part of the deal.
What Vance’s trip made clear was that both sides thought they had emerged as the winners of the first round: the United States by dropping too much munitions on Iran, the Iranians by surviving. Neither of them seem in the mood to compromise.
This article was first published on: New York Times.
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