Donald Trump draws a red line in Hormuz. Will China dare cross it?
Also Read: The blockade of Hormuz concerns China as much as Iran
A blockade targeting more than Iran
The blockade targets Iran, but this is not Iran’s only target. Bloomberg’s analysis suggests that this move has as much to do with China as Iran, pointing out that China continues to buy crude oil from Iran despite past US sanctions. “The calculus in Washington appears to be twofold: First, to impose an unbearable economic cost on Iran; second, to force China to share some of the pain. If Beijing has more at stake, perhaps it can pressure Tehran to negotiate, or so the theory goes,” the Bloomberg analysis says.
Trump has already encouraged China to switch to US oil exports, effectively turning a military move into economic leverage. “China can send its ships to us. China can send its ships to Venezuela,” Trump said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures” program. He had previously claimed in a social media post on Saturday that “ships carrying empty oil from many countries are all heading to the United States to LOAD Oil.”
This dual track strategy suggests that the blockade is not just about forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, but also about reshaping global energy flows in America’s favor. By targeting shipping via Hormuz, the United States is putting pressure on the main arteries that ensure China’s energy security and is forcing China to reconsider its oil import strategy.
Also Read: ‘Don’t interfere in our affairs’: China backs Iran, warns US against interference
China’s oil addiction meets strategic constraints
China’s dependence on Gulf oil is serious enough to make it uncomfortable. It is among the economies most exposed to supply shocks. China’s warning that the blockade of Iranian ports is “dangerous and irresponsible” and adding that it will only increase tensions indicates a rather measured reaction at this stage. China does not appear to be alarmed. Bloomberg reported that China has built up sufficient stocks of Iranian crude oil, providing a short-term buffer against disruptions.
According to Bloomberg report, Kpler Ltd. Data compiled by shows that about 38 million barrels of Iranian oil are onboard ships in Asia, with more than a third of the ships anchored in the Yellow Sea off the coast of China. Overall crude stocks in Shandong province, home to most of the country’s independent processors, known as teapots, also rose and are near the highest level this year, according to OilChem.
Emma Li, Singapore-based leading China market analyst for Vortexa Ltd, told Bloomberg that Iranian crude stored at sea provides about two-and-a-half months’ supply to the kettles. He added that the country’s imports from Iran reached a record high of 1.8 million barrels per day last month.
This reduces China’s urgency for immediate confrontation and may explain the measured tone of China’s official response, which focuses on calls for restraint rather than direct challenges.
The South China Morning Post reported that Trump’s blockade could potentially derail Trump’s May 14-15 summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Middle East-focused consultancy based in Washington, told SCMP that the blockade “plunged Beijing into a political dilemma it had been trying to avoid throughout the war.” “The longer the blockade continues, the more difficult it becomes for China to maintain its posture of strategic uncertainty between Washington and Tehran.” This context reinforces the idea that China has incentives to avoid escalating tensions, at least publicly.
Testing the waters without crossing the line
Despite official warnings, developments at sea tell a more uncertain story. According to a Reuters report, the Chinese-sanctioned tanker Rich Starry will be the first tanker to cross the strait and exit the Gulf since the start of the blockade, according to data from LSEG and Kpler. The tanker and its owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, were sanctioned by the United States for doing business with Iran. Rich Starry is a medium-range tanker carrying approximately 250,000 barrels of methanol, according to data. The data showed that it loaded the cargo at the UAE’s Hamriyah port, its last port of call. The data showed that there was a Chinese crew on the Chinese-owned tanker.
The incident does not amount to a direct conflict, but it raises questions about enforcement and compliance. This is where China’s approach could become more nuanced. Rather than openly defying the blockade, China could allow commercial actors to probe its borders. Such actions create plausible deniability while testing how far the United States is willing to go.
A negotiation tactic in disguise?
There is also a growing view that the blockade, which came on the heels of the collapse of US-Iran talks in Islamabad, was not designed to last long given the timing of the move. This sequence may mean that the blockade was a pressure tactic rather than a long-term military posture.
If this is the case, China’s strategy may be to wait it out. The United States can maintain its position by relying on stockpiles and avoiding overescalation while testing Iran’s response. Given its sufficient oil reserves, China has the flexibility to weather short-term disruptions.
At the same time, Trump’s open offer for China to buy American oil shows that he is already thinking beyond the blockade. The end game may lie in negotiations that reshape supply relationships rather than sustainable maritime sanctions.
Risk of miscalculation
Even if neither side tries to escalate tensions, the risks are clear. The passage of a Chinese-linked tanker through Hormuz shows how quickly the situation can move from signaling to conflict. Each such event increases the likelihood of miscalculation, especially on a narrow and heavily trafficked waterway.
China calls for dialogue and stability without taking a defiant stance, but its economic interests are directly affected by the blockade. China may become impatient if the cuts continue for a long time.
For now, China appears to be walking a tightrope. He neither openly accepts nor openly opposes the blockade. Instead, it explores, hedges, and waits. Whether this translates into a direct test of US resolve will depend on how long the blockade lasts and how strictly it is enforced. If the measure turns out to be temporary, China may never need to escalate tensions. However, if it turns into a sustainable policy, the pressure to act will increase.
