Strong tornadoes, giant hail possible for 6 million Michiganders, timeline is clear cut

The Storm Prediction Center has targeted Michigan’s most populated area for possibly severe storms this evening. Atmospheric conditions are ripe for damaging hail and a few strong tornadoes. As the evening progresses, the chances of multiple gusty winds will increase.

The best place to start is with a breakdown of which areas of Michigan are facing three forms of severe weather: tornadoes, high winds and large hail.

First of all, there is an expectation of severe weather in general. Muskegon, Grand Rapids, the orange zone north of Lansing, Ann Arbor, Detroit and all areas to the south have the highest rates of severe weather. Orange indicates level 3 risk out of five levels.

The tornado probability forecast shows a five to nine percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles from any point in the brown-shaded region of southwest, south-central and southeast Lower Michigan. Black hatching means any tornado could be a strong EF-2 tornado. Muskegon, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Detroit and Flint are at the highest tornado risk for Michigan. Be aware that the initial burst of storms in Iowa, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois could produce an EF-3 tornado.

The high wind forecast gives us a really good picture of t-storms coming from Wisconsin and moving southeast into Lower Michigan. The black hatch shows that brief, gusty winds at the beginning of the storm could exceed 70 mph. The same, highly populated area of ​​Southern Michigan will be in the path of a potentially higher-level storm line.

The first storms will hit near Madison, Wisconsin in the second half of the afternoon. These storms have a high chance of hail up to two inches in diameter. The same t-storms could also impact southwestern Lower Michigan and cause hail that could cause damage. Any storms this evening may also include hail up to 1 inch in diameter. If you have an open space in your garage, park your car there before the storms arrive this evening.

Here is the radar forecast of the high-resolution model that most accurately addresses this situation. Storm placement may be off by a county or two, but it gives us a really good picture of the overall weather scenario.

We are seeing supercell storms develop in Wisconsin in the late afternoon and arrive on the west coast of Lower Michigan around 8 p.m. Individual storms, which can then produce tornadoes and giant hail, turn into a series of severe storms. The squall line will likely produce gusty straight-line winds as it races across south-central and southeast Lower Michigan.

Be prepared to reach solid shelter in a real building at some point this evening.

Stay up to date with any changes or additional information: MLive.com/weather.

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