The bottom could be falling out in Trump’s polls

It was almost around this time, 20 years ago, that George W. Bush’s approval ratings began to plummet. Bush’s number in the polls dropped to the 30s for the first time in the late winter and early spring. the culprit was obvious: Iraq war.

History may be repeating itself in 2026 with President Donald Trump. Replace Iraq with Iran.

Two new polls released Tuesday morning showed Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s: 36% In a Reuters-Ipsos poll and 35% In the Power of Numbers-Verasight survey. They follow an NBC News poll from the weekend that showed Trump hitting a new low. 37%.

Last month eight out of nine were quality Polls followed by CNN We showed Trump in the 30s.

The only exception was the Fox News poll, which pegged Trump at 41%, but even that showed Trump posting his worst numbers in the polls since 2017.

Let’s put these numbers in context.

Trump disapproval reaches new heights

Not every poll shows Trump sinking to new depths with his approval rating.

Some pollsters showed him slightly lower during his first year in office in 2017 or after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

But Trump’s average disapproval rating is 62%. CNN Poll Poll – which averages the quality surveys mentioned above – is higher than any of the surveyors mentioned in any of these past examples.

Trump’s highest disapproval ratings in individual polls in 2017 were: 63% In a Pew Research Center survey, 61% In a Quinnipiac University survey and 60% in Reuters-Ipsos polls. Shot after January 6 62% In a poll conducted on CNN 61% In the Quinnipiac survey and 60% In a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Trump is now averaging such numbers across all polls, indicating more Americans are against Trump than ever before.

Trend line is consistent

And perhaps even more troubling for Trump, the trend line throughout his second term has been fairly consistent: constantly down.

While there was a general perception that Trump was very unpopular during his first term as president, he rebounded from his 2017 lows and spent most of his presidency with an approval rating in the low 40s, which is pretty normal for a president these days. This included the run-up to the 2018 midterm elections and his re-election race in 2020.

Trump’s approval rating during his first term was mostly: pretty flat.

However, in his second term, these figures showed a slow but steady downward trend.

This trend was before the Iran war. But the war is also entrenching some of Trump’s key liabilities and costing him the support of people who haven’t abandoned him before.

New declines in the economy

A big reason for this seems to be his views on the Iran war and how the emerging economy handles the economy. gas prices It was sent to new lows that accompanied it.

Intelligence:

Inflation has long been Trump’s worst problem; Voters often say Trump is ignoring concerns about rising costs. However, polls increasingly show that there is a rivalry left over from the Iran war.

NBC poll showed two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump on Iran war; This rate is only slightly less than the 68% who dislike Trump’s way of fighting inflation.

A previous CNN poll found that 67% disapprove of Trump’s stance on Iran; In comparison, there was a cut of 69% for the economy and 72% for inflation.

Entering Bush territory

It’s certainly possible that the trend line will change and a solution to the Iran war could help Trump.

But if the president’s approval rating solidifies in the mid-30s, he’ll be in pretty rare company. In recent years it will be mostly residential By one man: George W. Bush.

When Bush hit the 30s two decades ago, he was the first president since Jimmy Carter to stay there for an extended period of time, according to Gallup data. Joe Biden spent like Bush Some important times in the ’30sbut usually in the early 30s.

It’s not uncommon for presidents to be unpopular these days; In fact, this is kind of the norm.

But Trump is moving into highly unusual and dangerous political territory.

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