Airlines navigate war risks as passengers book flights despite safety warnings
Iran’s partial reopening of its eastern airspace this month was a positive sign for a war-torn region.
The corridor has been closed since late February after US and Israeli airstrikes sparked a war in which Iran attacked the airports of its Persian Gulf neighbors the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Uncertainty regarding the ceasefire extended by US President Donald Trump now also affects commercial aviation. And it helps shape the thinking of people considering flying through the Middle East.
The OpsGroup website, which compiles information on the airspace, said: “In practice, so far very few international operators use this airspace; most major airlines still avoid Iran altogether.”
None of this prevents people from booking flights using corridors in other parts of the region. Gulf airlines continued their flights to and from Qatar and Etihad hubs. Qantas is also a partner with Emirates. Booking such a ticket through Qantas triggers a pop-up reminding passengers that the Australian government advises against such travel. But this is just a reminder to check government guidance; It doesn’t stop people from making reservations.
Travel futurist Carolyn Childs of MyTravelResearch.com said both airlines and some travelers only look at official warnings.
“Airlines need to do something. They need cash and they want to plan ahead,” he said.
At the same time, some consumers think that the only negative risk associated with booking is if the airline cancels the flight.
Emirates currently operates discounted services to Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Etihad serves Sydney and Melbourne. Qatar Airways flies from Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane but its wet lease partnership with Virgin has been paused until June.
As airlines and passengers adapt to the war, there is a disparity between perceived safety and risk potential.
What complicates matters is that airlines’ own risk assessments vary.
Khaled Al Mezaini, Deputy Dean of Abu Dhabi Zayed University He said the situation in the UAE had “significantly improved” compared to last month. “The sense of immediate risk has diminished and there have been no recent events directly affecting the UAE.”
For Australians, “travel decisions are still driven by perceptions of regional stability rather than conditions within the UAE,” he said.
Al Mezaini said that although most major carriers have resumed largely normal operations, the situation has not completely “normalised”, although “some continue to change their routes to avoid high-risk areas”. Airlines are still operating with a high degree of caution and risk calculations remain dynamic.
This week, Emirates CEO Tim Clark told an audience in Berlin that the airline was operating at 65 percent of capacity and 13 percent of airports in its network were still unusable.
“Once this is over, it won’t take long for Emirates to get back into place,” he said.
The full resumption of services will mark a dramatic change. From the beginning of the conflict on February 28 to April 1, Iran alone launched an estimated 6,770 drones and missiles at targets in the Persian Gulf. Turkish media reportedIncluding airports in the United Arab Emirates.
If the risk calculus is changing for Middle East-based airlines, it is also changing for global travelers.
Childs said in past periods of geopolitical uncertainty, people would book trips 30 days away, but that window has been extended. Now people will bet more on the end of hostilities. He said customers think they will invest money in a cheap flight, but if the airline cancels it, they will get their money back and spend it on another flight.
Trump extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran, but the war may continue for some time without a full solution.
Linus Benjamin Bauer of Dubai-based BAA & Partners said the nature of risk for airlines had changed in recent years.
“Today’s conflicts are more fragmented, less predictable and increasingly shaped by asymmetric threats, from unmanned aerial vehicles and portable air defense systems to electronic interception,” he said.
This means the airspace “can legally remain open despite being operationally unsafe.”
The information airlines have is “incomplete, fragmented and often delayed.”
Crucially, Bauer writes, “decision-making has shifted from regulators to airlines.”
The proliferation of drones and GPS jamming and spoofing further increases the uncertainty facing airline operations and flight crews.
Other factors resulting from the war also come into play in travel. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is warning travelers about the potential for fuel shocks linked to Iran’s attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf to impact travel.
“Global fuel supplies are experiencing challenges, with many countries imposing fuel restrictions and taking local measures to protect fuel supplies.” DFAT’s Smartraveller website says. “Your plans may be affected if you travel abroad.”
Start your day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.
