No headway in Middle East peace efforts as US and Iran refuse to yield | US-Israel war on Iran
Hopes for progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States faded further Sunday as the sense of stalemate in the nearly two-month conflict deepened despite intense regional diplomatic activity.
Washington and Tehran appear unwilling to soften rhetoric or make concessions, and no negotiations that could definitively end the war are planned.
On Sunday, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said returned to Pakistan Meetings will be held with mediators for the second day in a row, following a brief visit for discussions in Oman.
Araghchi described Saturday’s trip to Pakistan as “very productive” but signaled doubts about Washington’s intentions. “I have not yet seen whether the United States is really serious about diplomacy.” X said.
On Saturday, Donald Trump announced that he canceled the visit of his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan. The two men were due to participate in a second round of talks with Iran tentatively scheduled for this weekend.
Speaking in Florida before being evicted from a White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington after a gunman opened fire on his security team, Trump said the visit involved too much travel and expense for an offer Iran viewed as inadequate.
The cancellation came after Iran said it would not participate in direct talks at a time when the United States has blocked all shipping to or from the Islamic Republic.
Trump later claimed that he had submitted a new deal proposal minutes after Tehran’s decision.
“They gave us an article that was supposed to be better, and — interestingly — the moment I canceled it, we got a much better article within 10 minutes,” he told reporters, without going into too much detail.
Pakistani officials attempted to regain momentum in the negotiations by informing the media that progress was being made towards a possible “bridge agreement” that would allow negotiations to resume.
A round of talks in Islamabad earlier this month, in which a US delegation led by vice president J.D. Vance met Iranian delegates led by Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ended with no apparent progress toward a deal.
The 21-hour session revealed major gaps in the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran’s long-standing support for militant movements in the Middle East.
The talks collapsed after Iran refused to accept US demands to end nuclear enrichment and hand over 440 kilos of highly enriched uranium.
Last week, Trump announced an indefinite extension of his previous two-week ceasefire with Iran and reiterated his demand that Iran allow ships free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s supply of oil and liquid natural gas in normal times.
The closure of the strategic waterway through the Gulf has caused oil prices to soar worldwide and threatened a global economic downturn.
In an effort to put pressure on Iran, Trump ordered the US fleet to assemble off its coast to blockade Iran, which is heavily dependent on oil sales to prevent total economic collapse.
Analysts say Iranian leaders are aware that the US president faces pressure from US voters unhappy with rising fuel prices and may be forced to make concessions sooner than Tehran. Midterm elections will be held in the USA in November.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose control over decision-making in Tehran has strengthened during the conflict, has said it does not intend to lift the blockade, experts say.
Iran wants to increase the transit fee through the strait and force each tanker that passes to pay $2 million. This may cause prices to be higher in the coming years.
“Controlling the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the shadow of its deterrent effect on America and the White House’s supporters in the region is the definitive strategy of Islamic Iran,” the Revolutionary Guard wrote on its official Telegram channel.
Iran’s military warned in a statement carried by state media that continued “blockade, banditry and piracy” by the United States would lead to retaliation.
Trump ordered the military to “shoot and kill” Iranian ships that might plant mines. Although the United States has sunk nearly all of Iran’s conventional navy, the small fast boats used by the Revolutionary Guard still pose a significant threat. Three ships were opened fire on by Iranian forces last week.
Analysts said Iran had the upper hand since the failed first round of talks in Islamabad.
Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen wrote, “Both the United States and Iran tabled lists of 15 and 10 maximalist demands, respectively, that exceed their interlocutors’ known red lines.” wrote last week On behalf of the Clingendael Institute of International Relations, Netherlands.
“But neither the military situation nor the military perspective at the time supported the idea that major concessions were being offered in comparison. [with] pre-war positions
“On the contrary, the strategic stalemate that led to the ceasefire favored Iran because the United States cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz without a large-scale and risky ground operation.”
Writing on Truth Social before the dinner attack in Washington, Trump said there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within the Iranian leadership.
“No one knows who is responsible, including them,” he shared. “Besides, we have all the cards, they don’t! If they want to talk, just call!!!”
Although there are deep divisions among Iranian leaders and factions, they are all determined to present a united front to the United States, analysts say.
Iranian president Massoud Pezeshkian said last week that there were “no hardliners or moderates” in Tehran and that the country stood united behind its supreme leader.
Another challenge is maintaining the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon, which Tehran sees as crucial to its participation in any talks. Israel struck southern Lebanon on Saturday, killing at least six people it said were Hezbollah militants, and several rockets and drones were launched from Lebanon towards Israel.
The conflict is one of the most geographically wide-ranging conflicts in the Middle East since World War II, with fierce attacks stretching from Azerbaijan to Oman and even as far as the Indian Ocean.
At least 3,375 people have been killed in joint US-Israeli attacks in Iran, according to local health authorities. Approximately 2,500 people were killed in Lebanon, where Israel launched a relentless attack after Hezbollah fired a missile at Israel in retaliation for the Israeli attack on Tehran that killed Iran’s religious leader Ali Khamenei and started the war.
More than a dozen people were killed in Gulf Arab states and 23 in Israel due to retaliatory attacks launched by Iranian proxies. 15 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon, 13 US soldiers in the region and 6 UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon were killed.
