‘No other plan comes close’: how Labour MPs turned to Burnham with Starmer on the brink | Labour

While Westminster’s eyes were on parliament’s committee rooms and polling lobbies this week, Keir Starmer’s political future was being decided elsewhere.

As Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner greased Labor MPs in the Foreigners’ Bar in parliament, their colleagues spoke of their “existential” fears about next week’s crucial election.

Starmer, meanwhile, tried to calm backbenchers’ nerves as he made rounds of his members-only smoking room and private office behind the House of Commons. A former minister said the atmosphere was so dark that some MPs refused to meet the leader: “We don’t want to be seen with him.”

Andy Burnham was 800 miles from Madrid when Starmer’s future dominated Westminster. But the Greater Manchester mayor’s allies are stepping up his leadership campaign, saying his return to parliament and becoming the next prime minister could happen “within a matter of weeks”.

Burnham is quietly preparing his manifesto. Those close to the mayor said he would launch a clear program for government and identify several possible seats in Greater Manchester and Merseyside as he fights the final parliamentary by-election campaign.

The commitments will include sweeping reforms to the electoral system supporting the introduction of proportional representation across the UK, as well as a ten-year vision to transform local services, higher defense spending and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for Britain’s creaking social care system.

Sources close to Burnham told the Guardian he had identified multiple seats that could become vacant immediately after the May 7 election, with Labor lining up an “impressive” candidate to replace him as mayor of Greater Manchester.

This candidate is not an incumbent MP but is believed to have the pedigree to win a key mayoral election against Reform UK.

Manchester city council leader Bev Craig’s candidacy put forward It is understood that he did not exclude himself. He refused to comment.

One of Burnham’s allies said: “We could find a very good candidate in Greater Manchester. Andy is confident it can happen.” “There are very strong possibilities that this will happen within a few weeks, but certainly within months and throughout the summer.”

Starmer’s team this week suggested any attempt to return Westminster would be strongly opposed. Those close to the prime minister said the possibility of losing the mayoralty was a risk not worth taking; but it is possible that changes to the electoral system in the upcoming election bill would give Labor a better chance against Reform in a more proportional voting system.

Members of Labour’s national executive committee, which blocked Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton by-elections in February, told the Guardian it was not possible for the mayor to reach them through that committee.

Some of Burnham’s allies are believed to be trying to persuade union general secretaries to change their views, with Unison a prime target. Others, such as GMB, refused to support Burnham due to his closeness to Ed Miliband, who is at loggerheads with the union over oil and gas licences.

“This will only happen if Keir actually gives in and says, ‘Okay, we’ll let Andy in so I can step out,'” one of them said. According to those close to Starmer, the chances of this happening are close to zero.

But a growing number of Labor MPs believe this position is completely unsustainable after two weeks of damaging headlines about Peter Mandelson and what many expect from next week’s elections in England, Wales and Scotland.

Their fears grew after predictions from election expert Robert Hayward that Labor was expected to lose more than 1,600 seats across England, as well as heavy defeats in Wales and Scotland.

Many MPs trying to persuade their colleagues said they believed that with the right numbers, Burnham would take office in the autumn.

Some have suggested the possibility that Burnham or another candidate could next appoint Starmer as foreign secretary in a bid to build consensus.

This would be an unlikely outcome, given Starmer’s anger at moves to oust him and Burnham’s behavior in particular. “This will allow him to build on his legacy in Iran, Ukraine and Europe,” said one supportive lawmaker.

The plan, which is said to have the support of some cabinet ministers, would be to issue a statement urging Starmer to prepare for an orderly departure. MPs expect at least 100 MPs to approve it after May 8. “We should avoid a big fight within the Labor Party as much as possible and present it as a fait accompli,” one MP said optimistically.

“The reason this feels different is because it’s not factional,” said one front row member. “Not the soft left or the SCG [Corbynites] – in fact, many people come to No 10 to make the same point: that they need to set a timetable to go on May 8.”

Another said: “Andy’s position among Labor MPs is extremely strong. There is a clear view that including him in our Westminster team will improve our chances of defeating Reformation and prevent Nigel Farage from entering Downing Street at the next election. There is no doubt he can secure the 80 MPs needed in the event of a leadership election.”

They said Starmer had a “great legacy” and had brought the party back together after the fractious years of Jeremy Corbyn: “Now he has the chance to bring the party back together with a graceful exit.”

Some Labor MPs said the mood had turned “existential” since the Guardian revealed Mandelson had failed a security clearance after being appointed US ambassador; It was a statement that led to the sacking of Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins and two weeks of damaging headlines about Starmer’s decision.

“Before you broke this story people were saying it would be difficult for Burnham to come back and Keir would have at least until Christmas. [story] It was the final straw: it is now impossible to defend what we saw,” said one MP.

They added: “We can now agree that Burnham is the only player who can hold onto their seat in the city, even among those you would think would be aligned with the other candidates.”

There is growing support for Burnham among new MPs, but also among the centrist wing of the party. “We’ve spent the last nine months trying to see if something else works, including Keir, but it doesn’t,” said one front-rower. “That’s it, that’s the plan. No other plan comes close.”

The soft-left group of Tribune MPs, led by several former ministers including Louise Haigh and Justin Madders, is expected to call for its own change of direction after the May election.

But MPs who coordinated the statement demanding an orderly transition say it is a separate effort and reaches all wings of the party. It is also separate from plans to potentially challenge Starmer directly, which would likely knock Burnham out of the contest.

“I don’t want the process to harm us,” said one MP. “I want it to be consensual. He should know that something needs to change. Since I support Andy, I honestly think this process should give him a chance to serve.”

MPs said Burnham had made significant efforts to meet new MPs, including campaigning in London last week alongside ministers including Ellie Reeves and Miatta Fahnbulleh.

Some said the more skeptical MPs were the old guard who had served in government with Burnham. “Only about 100 MPs in this parliament recognize him and most of them do not support him,” said one skeptical minister.

Nine years after leaving Westminster after serving in the cabinets of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Burnham may be on the verge of a dramatic comeback. Bringing him back is now a matter of “political will” among lawmakers, his team said.

“The will to be allowed to compete on many issues is growing, and at the same time [Starmer’s] A source close to Burnham said: “MPs are very desperate, very demoralized. They want an answer to the existential crisis facing the party.”