Rayner, Streeting or Burnham? The favourites to replace Starmer – plus have your say

We’re less than a week away from May’s local elections and all eyes are on Sir Keir Starmer’s position as leader of the Labor Party.

The upcoming elections are widely touted as a doomsday for the prime minister, with his party expected to face a crushing defeat with 5,000 seats in parliament up for grabs.

Sir Keir has faced relentless criticism of his leadership since taking office in July 2024; Added to these criticisms were a series of U-turns in key policy and the Peter Mandelson scandal.

The election marks the perfect opportunity for others in the Labor Party, some of whom have been said to have been planning a leadership fight for months, to finally go on strike.

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is widely regarded as the most popular candidate and allies say he has a credible plan to return as an MP, a prerequisite for the top job.

Sir Keir’s former aide Angela Rayner is also in the front row, along with current health secretary Wes Streeting.

Here, Independent He looks at each potential leadership candidate and you can say:

Andy Burnham

The mayor of Greater Manchester, who is popular with Labor MPs, party members and the public, has been hinting at a leadership bid for months.

The latest YouGov poll shows Mr Burnham well ahead of other Labor figures in popularity polls; 34 per cent of Britons think he will do a better job than Sir Keir.

Over the past year, Mr Burnham has repeatedly failed to reject Labour’s leadership bid and has regularly been put forward as the leading candidate to take over should Sir Keir’s position as prime minister become untenable.

He was the focus of such rumors last September when he announced at a Labor Party conference that dozens of MPs had privately called on him to challenge the prime minister.

Since he is not yet a member of parliament, he cannot make an official proposal.

Tensions came to a head earlier this year when the parliamentary seat was elected in the north-west constituencies of Gorton and Denton.

Mr Burnham put forward a bid for Labor in the historically safe seat but was blocked by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).

Critics accused Sir Keir and his allies of blocking the candidacy for factional reasons and fear of a leadership fight, despite the government insisting the move was based on the potential cost of the Manchester mayoral election.

But allies say he has plans to return as an MP. And his team have reportedly lined up an “impressive” candidate to replace him as mayor, potentially removing Sir Keir’s reason to block him.

Angela Rayner

Rumors about the Ashton-under-Lyme MP’s ambitions have been circulating since he resigned from Sir Keir’s cabinet last September after it was revealed he had underpaid stamp duty on his Brighton flat.

Rayner, once the prime minister’s number two, is a popular figure on the party’s soft left and is seen as one of the MPs most likely to stage a coup against him.

Earlier this year he launched what was widely seen as his most public challenge to Sir Keir, warning that Labor was “running out of time” to deliver change and “unable to act in the face of decline”.

Rumors of a joint bid with Andy Burnham were sparked earlier this month after he met with the Mayor of Greater Manchester amid rumors Sir Keir was set to be challenged.

Working with the mayor of Greater Manchester could be crucial for Ms Rayner, who has just 15 per cent of voters believing she would do a better job than Sir Keir in popularity polls.

But there are mixed signals about whether the former deputy prime minister wants to sack Sir Keir altogether or simply rejoin his cabinet.

In December the prime minister described Rayner as “hugely talented” and said he wanted to see him return to the front bench.

And in what was seen as a last-ditch attempt to secure his position ahead of the election, Sir Keir reportedly offered Rayner a place in his cabinet this week.

Either way, he is unlikely to take action until the investigation into his tax affairs is concluded, which is expected to be in the coming weeks.

Wes Street

The health minister is considered the most likely candidate from within his own cabinet to replace Sir Keir.

It is understood he has the support of enough Labor MPs to launch his leadership bid within days, recruiting more than 81 MPs – the minimum number needed to trigger a leadership election.

Sir Keir was reportedly warned of Mr Streeting’s intentions after he mistakenly texted a Downing Street staffer details of his bid, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, which stands for government plan.

On the right of the party is a charismatic cabinet minister who can connect with the people.

Towards the end of last year, talk of a possible leadership bid grew louder, amid a briefing war targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambition to replace Sir Keir.

He has previously expressed concern about the direction of the government and said there was a “toxic culture” at No 10 when briefings against him were made public in November.

Earlier this year, as questions about Sir Keir’s future reached fever pitch, the health secretary took the controversial decision to publish correspondence between himself and Lord Mandelson that contained serious criticism of the Prime Minister’s economic and Middle East policies.

The publication breached collective responsibility and would normally lead to dismissal, but Mr Streeting justified it by saying it was necessary to deal with “smears” made about his relationship with his disgraced former Labor colleague.

The main obstacle Streeting faces is the perception among some in Labor that he is too far to the right of the party, and the general feeling that he does not have enough support to launch a successful bid.

Public popularity ratings are also low; Only 13 per cent of voters think he will do a better job than Sir Keir.

Ed Miliband

More than 10 years after he defeated the party in 2015, Ed Miliband has emerged as an unlikely candidate for the chancellorship.

But during his time away from the administration, the energy minister has carved out a niche as the party’s chief advocate for green energy and net zero.

Speculation is rife on social media that Miliband, who is surprisingly popular with young people, is preparing to make a comeback as leader.

The latest Mandelson scandal has left him increasingly critical of the government, telling broadcasters last week that he had raised concerns about his appointment with David Lammy at the time.

A supporter of Miliband told Independent lately: “He has energy and enthusiasm. He is loved by the younger members of the party. He is a new man since the last time he was leader.”

Despite the noise, Miliband has denied considering a leadership bid and polls show only 13 per cent of voters think he would do a better job than the current prime minister.