Analysis-Iran standoff could leave Trump worse off than before he went to war

By Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON, May 2 (Reuters) – More than two months into a conflict that has failed to produce a decisive military or diplomatic victory, President Donald Trump risks the conflict with Iran continuing indefinitely and leaving an even bigger problem for the United States and the world than before he launched the war.

With both sides seemingly confident they have the upper hand and their positions far apart, there is no obvious way out, even if Iran has presented a new offer to restart negotiations. Trump quickly denied it on Friday.

The consequences of the ongoing stalemate for the US President and his Republican Party are dire.

An unresolved conflict would mean the global economic crisis, including high gasoline prices in the US, is likely to continue, putting further pressure on Trump as his poll numbers have fallen and damming the prospects of Republican candidates ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November.

UNMET OBJECTIVES

These costs underscore a deeper problem: The war has failed to achieve many of Trump’s stated goals.

While there is little doubt that U.S. and Israeli strikes have greatly disrupted Iran’s military capabilities, many of Trump’s frequently shifting war objectives (from regime change to blocking Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon) remain unfulfilled.

Fears of a longer stalemate have risen since Trump last weekend canceled a visit by his negotiators to Islamabad and then rejected Iran’s offer to halt the war, which has been suspended since April 8 under a ceasefire agreement.

Tehran has proposed postponing discussions on its nuclear program until the conflict is officially over and an agreement is reached on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This was not a positive start for Trump, who demanded that the nuclear issue be addressed from the very beginning.

There was a glimmer of hope on Friday, when state news agency IRNA reported that Tehran had sent a revised offer through Pakistani mediators, prompting a drop in global oil prices that have risen sharply since Iran effectively closed the strait. Trump told reporters he was “not happy” with the offer, but phone contact was continuing.

Failure to take the vital oil transport waterway from Iranian control at the end of the conflict would be a major blow to Trump’s legacy.

“He will be remembered as the US president who made the world less safe,” said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East expert at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Iran’s “desperation” was growing due to military and economic pressures and that Trump “holds all the cards and has all the time he needs to make the best deal.”

RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES?

A White House official said on condition of anonymity that Trump, whose next steps are unclear and with no clear outcome in sight, has raised in private meetings the possibility of a prolonged naval blockade of Iran, possibly months longer, to further curtail Iran’s oil exports and force it to reach a denuclearization agreement.

At the same time, he left the door open to the resumption of military action. U.S. Central Command has prepared options for a series of “short and powerful” strikes, as well as for seizing part of the strait to reopen it to ships, Axios reported Thursday.

European diplomats said that their governments, whose relations with Trump have been strained due to the war, expect the current situation with Iran to continue.

“It’s hard to see how this will end any time soon,” said one person who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran remained defiant.

By shutting down shipping in the strait, where tanker traffic flowed freely before the war and carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil, it put strong pressure on the United States and its allies and triggered an unprecedented energy supply shock.

Analysts say it will be encouraging to know that Iran will have this weapon even after the war.

“Iran has realized that even in a weakened state it can close the Strait at will,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “This information makes Iran stronger than before the war.”

URANIUM STOCKS ARE THICK

Trump, who took office promising to avoid involvement in foreign interventions, failed to achieve his main goal by attacking Iran on February 28: to block Iran’s path to nuclear weapons.

A stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have remained buried following US and Israeli airstrikes last June and could be salvaged and turned into bomb-grade material. Iran says it wants the United States to recognize its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Wales, the White House spokesman, said Trump had “met or exceeded” all military goals, including action to “ensure Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Another of Trump’s stated war goals—forcing Iran to halt support for proxy groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Palestinian Hamas—has yet to be met.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denied in congressional testimony that the conflict had become a “swamp” even though Trump initially predicted the conflict would be over in four to six weeks.

Given the large gaps, renewed peace talks are unlikely to lead to a quick solution.

While Trump has said he would accept nothing less than a long-term solution to the threat posed by Iran, he has at times shown signs that he is seeking an exit plan from an unpopular conflict.

According to information provided by US officials to Reuters, at the request of Trump’s aides, intelligence agencies are investigating how Iran would react if Trump unilaterally declares victory and withdraws.

Independent analysts say Tehran will interpret this as its strategic success in surviving the military offensive.

At the same time, European and Gulf Arab diplomats have expressed concern that Trump may eventually accept a flawed deal that would allow a wounded Iran to remain a threat.

RISK OF ‘FROZEN CONFLICT’

With negotiations deadlocked, some analysts have suggested that the war could escalate into a frozen conflict that will defy a permanent solution. This could prevent Trump from significantly reducing his forces in the Middle East.

The United States is already paying new strategic costs.

These include rifts with traditional European allies who were not consulted before Trump entered the war.

He has harshly criticized NATO partners for not sending their navies to help open the strait and last week spoke of the possibility of withdrawing troops from Germany, Spain and Italy.

Trump also has to deal with the more hardline Iranian leadership, dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which took over after US-Israeli strikes killed several figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

At the beginning of the conflict, the president’s call to the Iranian people to overthrow their rulers was ignored.

Trump is under pressure to end a war at home that has pushed his approval rating to an all-time low of 34 percent, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and has sent gas prices soaring above $4 a gallon ahead of midterm elections in which Republicans risk losing control of Congress.

Taylor Rogers, the White House’s second spokesman, said Trump was determined to maintain his party’s congressional majority and that high gas prices were only “short-term disruptions” that would be overcome as conflicts subsided.

But Iranians are aware of Trump’s domestic problems and may be prepared to wait it out, but the question remains how long they can avert economic disaster.

Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank in Washington, wrote of X: “Iran is not disintegrating or folding, it is playing for time.”

(Reporting by Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal and Humeyra Pamuk; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Don Durfee and Rod Nickel)