DAN HODGES: This old pit village is Labour to its core. If Starmer is routed here by Farage, he’s really in a giant hole

David and Rob collect rubbish in their old wheelbarrows. But they want something a little more permanent. ‘Do you have a job?’ Dave asks me.

I have to tell him that unfortunately I haven’t, and explain that I’m wandering around the narrow terraces of Willows Close in Washington, Tyne and Wear, trying to find out how people plan to vote in this week’s local elections.

Neither of them has any intention of going to the polls. But they still give me a small clue about the prevailing political sentiment.

“You know, you look a bit like Keir Starmer with that hair,” says Rob. ‘You’d better watch. People here don’t like him very much. ‘You might get hit in the head with a shovel.’

The property I’m touring around is in the Washington East district, which is quickly becoming ground zero for the Labor Party. The party currently has a vice-like grip on Sunderland Council. But that will change on Thursday, according to survey aggregator PollCheck.

Only 13 of the 49 current Labor Sunderland councilors are expected to survive.

According to the latest forecast, Washington East will turn from Labor red to Reform turquoise.

Standing outside in the sun painting her fence with her oldest daughter, Mother tries to tell me why. ‘I always vote Labour,’ he explains, ‘but this time it’s complicated. I’m a healthcare assistant and I only make minimum wage. ‘I can’t afford childcare.’

He pauses to apply another coat of rusty matte polish. ‘I’m out day and night. And people who do not work are looked after by the State. Star player? He was supposed to be on my side. But it’s not like that, is it?’

Downing Street was confidently briefing that Starmer’s statesmanlike stance on the crisis would begin to reset perceptions of him – but this turned out to be a figment

As I continue walking, I realize that there is no clear evidence that elections have taken place, which many believe will decide the fate of another Prime Minister.

But there are still hints of the local mood in the form of a few Union Jacks hanging from window frames and clotheslines. Although some people remain stubbornly immune to Nigel Farage’s populist appeal.

At the bus stop I found Edith patiently waiting for bus 84. I ask how you will vote. ‘Labour,’ he replies. ‘This is how my parents voted. And I am 91 years old. It’s too late to change now.’

A few minutes down the road, rows of compact flats lead to a picturesque green with a carefully preserved war memorial, the 12th-century local church and rows of quaint cafes. This is Washington Village, one of the ancient pit communities that make up this corner of north-east England.

Viv, a retired receptionist, enjoys her morning coffee with her NHS worker friend Helena. Does he know who to support this week?

“Nigel Farage,” Viv replies. ‘He says what he thinks. And what do most of us think?’

I’m asking for your views on my role as Prime Minister. ‘Star? His problem is that he seems very distant. It doesn’t seem very connected.”

He takes another sip from his glass. ‘I do have some concerns about the Reformation though. I think they’re a bit inexperienced.’

Helena laughs. ‘My sons both vote Reformation,’ he interjects, ‘but they do it as a joke. They think Farage is funny.’ Given what I understand, I’m not so sure Keir Starmer will see the funny side.

When the campaign began a month ago, the perception in Westminster was that his party was heading for major losses, but Sir Keir was likely to recover from those losses given the popular reaction to his stance on the Iran war.

But then the Peter Mandelson scandal hit the headlines again. And the new conventional wisdom is that the Prime Minister will be angry if regions like Washington turn their backs on him.

What is clear from my few days on the doorstep is that Mandelson didn’t make the cut. Before I left, a Labor MP said to me: ‘You watch. ‘No one will mention his name there.’ A prediction that turned out to be true.

People’s opinions about the leader of the Reformation vary somewhat; Nigel Farage still has significant support, but I consider it qualified

But equally true is that no one is talking about the Strait of Hormuz here either. Downing Street was confidently briefing that Starmer’s statesmanlike handling of the crisis would begin to reset perceptions of him. However, this turns out to be a wish.

The views I am hearing now are no different from those I have received over the last 12 months. ‘Communication with him has been lost. He doesn’t understand us. He promised change, but what did he actually deliver?’ But what is slightly different is people’s views on the Reformation leader. Nigel Farage still has significant support. But for the first time I find it qualified.

When I have visited Labour’s crumbling Red Wall seats in the past, I have seen him enjoy a messianic level of adoration. Now doubts begin to grow.

Concerns about his and his party’s lack of experience paradoxically coincide with the feeling that he no longer stands apart from the political group.

People who have expressed anger over issues such as immigration and welfare have often shrugged their shoulders when I asked whether Reformation represented the solution. ‘What’s the point, it’s all the same’ again becomes the default response.

But I suspect that won’t be enough to save Starmer. Either here in the Northeast or nationally. The anger and disappointment towards the Prime Minister is now simmering. No amount of reset, reboot, or rebranding will change the views of the people I talk to in Washington. Starmer’s opportunity for a Hugh Grant-like ‘Love Actually moment’ is gone and gone.

Similarly, growing doubts about the Reformation will not be significantly reflected in this week’s results. Because voters who go to the trouble of going to the polls see these local elections as only offering them a binary choice. A vote to support Keir Starmer or a vote to reject him. And they think their concerns about Nigel Farage can be left for another day.

I managed to leave Washington without being hit in the head with a blunt instrument. I’m not sure the Prime Minister will be so lucky on Thursday.