Tony Blair warns that European leaders risk global irrelevance unless they overhaul energy strategy
Sir Tony Blair has called on European leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer, to overhaul their energy strategies to prioritize supply and affordability as the conflict in Iran raises fears that prices will rise.
Writing with former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, the former prime minister stressed that decarbonization was “essential” but “unsustainable alone.” They also warn that geopolitical shocks such as the conflict in the Middle East leave Europe “hopelessly exposed”.
Future global leaders in energy will be those capable of delivering “abundant, safe and affordable energy on a large scale,” the pair say in the foreword to a new report from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI).
The warning comes after the Bank of England predicted that the average household’s annual energy bill will rise from £1,641 to approach £1,900 in July and remain at that level for the rest of the year.
The energy crisis triggered by a protracted conflict in the Middle East could even push the UK into recession in the second half of this year, the leading think tank National Institute for Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.
In their foreword, the former leaders said: “Europe has led the world in climate ambition and made real progress in reducing emissions. This achievement is significant. But the global center of gravity has shifted. The future of the energy system will be determined in economies where demand is growing rapidly and the top priority is ensuring supply keeps pace.”
They added: “For years, the energy transition has been understood primarily as a climate challenge defined by targets, timelines and emissions reductions. But this framework is no longer sufficient. In a world of geopolitical instability, rising electricity demand and intensifying economic competition, energy has literally become a matter of power.”
“The countries that will succeed in the coming decades will not only be those that decarbonize fastest, but also those that can deliver abundant, safe and affordable energy at scale.”
Sir Tony and Mr Renzi said Europe had the “capabilities to lead in this next phase” but warned that doing so would require “a clearer narrative, a stronger political orientation and a renewed focus on implementation”.
“Unless Europe aligns its strategy with this reality, it risks falling behind those currently shaping the energy systems and economic order of the future.”
The foreword is careful not to overtly criticize net zero policy, following a row last spring when Sir Tony suggested that limiting fossil fuels in the short term was “doomed to fail”.
“This is not an argument for undermining climate ambition,” he insists, but rather “embedding it within a more effective strategy – a strategy that recognizes that clean energy will succeed when it helps provide abundant and affordable energy.”
But the report, written by TBI senior policy advisor Tone Langengen, argues that UK and Denmark’s decisions to phase out fossil fuel production have left the region “more open to international markets in increasingly unstable times”.
Referring to this move, which is among the “mistakes” made in Europe’s energy approach, the newspaper says: “While dependency remained high, fossil fuels were not prioritized.
“Europe’s long-standing dependence on Russian fossil fuels has gradually been replaced by dependence on Middle Eastern and American resources.
“Decisions by key producers such as Denmark and the UK to phase out fossil fuel production have left the region more open to international markets in increasingly unstable times.”
The report also recommends that the UK and EU move towards a “single market” relationship in the long term, and argues that Britain should also be allowed to “participate” in a continental “system planner” designed to coordinate the European electricity sector.
He says: “In the longer term, the UK-EU relationship must move towards a single market framework, not for political reasons but because the physical realities of Europe’s interconnected energy systems leave no alternative.”
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “Net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century, with clean energy the path to energy sovereignty, lower bills for good and thousands of good jobs in our communities.
“The lesson from another fossil fuel crisis is that the UK needs to get off the fossil fuel roller coaster and move to clean domestic energy that we control.
“We are moving further and faster for homegrown clean energy to lower bills altogether, including decisive action to break the impact of gas on electricity prices.”
