Local elections could hasten the exit of Britain’s embattled prime minister
British voters will vote on Thursday in elections that could hasten the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s troubled tenure and confirm that the increasingly fragmented United Kingdom has entered an era of complex multi-party politics.
Starmer’s centre-left Labor Party is expected to take a hit in elections for local authorities in England and semi-autonomous legislatures in Scotland and Wales.
Rival parties are framing Thursday’s by-elections as a referendum on Starmer and his 2-year-old government, amid repeated questions about the prime minister’s popularity and his decisions amid a recession caused by a weak economy. “Vote for Reform, Get Starmer Out” is the campaign slogan of the far-right Reform UK party.
The next national election is not due to be held until 2029, but a vote on Thursday could push the restive Labor Party into rebellion against its unpopular leader.
Less than two years after he won a landslide election victory, “Keir Starmer has become a tool for people’s frustration (and) disillusionment,” said Luke Tryl of More in Common polling.
Polling day could be Starmer’s doomsday
Starmer’s popularity has fallen following repeated missteps since he became prime minister in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair shattered public services, and ease the cost of living; These tasks have been made more difficult by the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has cut off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Prime Minister was further affected by Jeffrey Epstein’s disastrous decision to appoint his scandal-tainted friend Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to Washington.
Forecasters suggest Labor will lose more than half of the 2,500 seats it defends on English local councils. It is expected to lose votes to parties on both the left and the right, particularly the Green Party in London and working-class Reform UK, former Labor strongholds in the north of England.
“This election is a dangerous and perilous moment for Keir Starmer,” said Tony Travers, professor in the Department of Government at the London School of Economics. After a series of policy U-turns and in an economy where “there’s not much money to spend on anything, rivals are lining up,” he said.
Starmer survived a crisis in February when some Labor MPs, including the party’s leader in Scotland, demanded his resignation over Mandelson’s appointment.
An election defeat could trigger an immediate leadership challenge from a high-profile rival such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Chancellor Angela Rayner or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Any challenger would need the support of 80 MPs, one-fifth of the party in the House of Commons, to launch a contest. In Burnham’s case, he would need to win the Parliamentary election before taking over.
Alternatively, Starmer may face pressure to set a timetable for his departure from the party after an orderly leadership contest.
“His parliamentary party isn’t sure whether now is the right time to remove him,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “Therefore, the execution may be postponed.”
But Bale added: “It’s a matter of when rather than if.”
Polls point to fragmented politics and a fractured country
Decades of Labor losses could have been good news for its main rival, the right-of-centre Conservative Party. But the Conservatives have been tarnished by 14 turbulent years in power, which ends in 2024. The main beneficiaries of these elections are likely to be the UK Reform led by Nigel Farage, the left-leaning Greens and the nationalist Welsh and Scottish parties.
Travers said Britain was moving away from a “two-and-a-half party system” with the Liberal Democrats as the usual third party, towards “more of a five-party system”.
This is excellent news for Rhun ap Iorwerth, who leads Plaid Cymru (Party for Wales) and has a good chance of leading the country’s semi-autonomous government.
“Old politics is over,” he said. “The Labor Party will not win this election.”
A possible seismic change on the horizon
Labor has dominated Welsh politics for a century and has held power in Cardiff since the formation of the Welsh government in 1999. Polls show Labor will be pushed into third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, who are neck and neck.
Plaid’s victory would give the UK’s pro-independence leaders three of their four divisions. Northern Ireland is governed by the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein under a power-sharing agreement with the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party.
The Scottish National Party, which has been in power in Edinburgh since 2007, said on Thursday it would push for a new independence referendum if it wins a majority. Scottish voters rejected leaving the UK in a 2014 vote.
Plaid Cymru said a separation vote was not on the agenda for the next few years, although the party’s ultimate goal was independence. In the short term, he wants more authority to raise taxes and more control over how the money is spent.
“We need a fundamental redesign of Britain,” Ap Iowerth said. “This is an unequal union.”
