Trump just reasserted his domination of the GOP. But that might not be good news for the party in 2026
Just two months after the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 — even as some Republicans harbor illusions about moving beyond Donald Trump — Senator Lindsey Graham has stepped forward with a reality check.
South Carolina Republican likens Trump era to GOP hostage situation and urged his party to make the most of his captivity.
“He could make the Republican Party something that no one I know has ever been able to do. He could make it bigger. He could make it stronger. He could make it more diverse,” Graham told “Axios on HBO.” Then the senator added: “And he might destroy it too.”
Graham said Trump has both a “dark side” and a talent for “magic,” and it’s best to hope the party catches the magic.
Tuesday’s election proved how right Graham was; Even as the Republican Party steadfastly ignores the dangers of a crisis historically unpopular The dark side of the president.
Five months ago Indiana state Senate Republicans perhaps The most striking rebuke to Trump yet from members of his own party. They questioned his grip on the party by flatly rejecting the new congressional map and his open threats to it.
But on Tuesday, Trump successfully certified their apostasy.
Trump and his political operation impeached at least five of seven state senators They intended to vote against that map. (One primary race remained unresolved. One senator survived.)
The significance of these defeats should not be underestimated. Most lawmakers never have to worry about losing a general election in today’s polarized age, making primaries the only real obstacle to re-election. Trump used this fact to great effect. He made life hell for any Republican who disagreed with him, imposing loyalty and driving many out, often through forced retirement.
On Tuesday, even a politically diminished Trump appeared to have the power to end a Republican’s career if they don’t toe his line.
“Sometimes you can vote your feelings, but sometimes you have to vote the party,” James Blair, a top Trump political adviser, told CNN’s Dana Bash on Wednesday. “As the elected party leader, the president has the right to decide which vote is which, and he has always been clear about it. No one should be surprised by any of this.”
And that message will not go unnoticed by Republicans who think the paradigm has shifted, as some did after January 6. They will continue to live in fear of him.
But while this is great news for Trump’s political capital, it’s decidedly less good news for the GOP, where the president’s midterm hopes are sinking.
In any normal interim year when the president is present approval rating drops to mid-30sYou see MPs tripping over themselves to get some distance from him and trying to adjust the political direction of the party. Think of George W. Bush in 2006 and 2008; he and the vice president didn’t even attend the 2008 Republican National Convention.
But Republicans are doing the exact opposite because they think they need to survive.
Perhaps nothing brings it home like Trump’s ballroom.
this problem a political albatross for the GOP and has been for six months. This is symbolic Trump’s politically strange insistence Even as Americans see him ignoring cost-of-living concerns, he’s too busy slapping his name and likeness all over Washington and building flashy things.
But Republicans last week didn’t just approach the project with humor; they adopted it. Graham et al. suggested taxpayers pay (Despite Trump’s promises that taxpayers would pay nothing). And now Senate Republicans Transferred $1 billion to an unrelated bill to ensure the security of the ballroom.
This may seem like political malpractice six months before the midterm elections, but Trump is demanding it. So we’ve seen some politically safe lawmakers use the issue to curry favor with the president—albeit at the expense of their more vulnerable siblings.
The Iran war and Trump’s haphazard approach present similar dynamics.
On Tuesday, he sent the defense and foreign ministers and the Chief of Staff to elaborate and embrace the so-called strategic brilliance of the “Freedom Project.” dubious attempt to guide ships We are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is blocked amid threats from Iran. But a few hours later, Trump said the project had been paused, once again suggesting that a peace deal could be imminent.
Trump has previously suggested a deal had been reached many times, but it has not yet materialized and details of what it might entail are scant. Room He bluffed many times. So it’s possible this is just the latest confusing strategic moment in a war that is quickly becoming a major liability for Trump and the GOP.
Last week’s poll showed that 61 percent of Americans call the war a mistake just two months later; the Iraq took the war three years The number of “mistakes” was so high that the Vietnam war lasted six years.
But through it all, congressional Republicans have shown little interest in asserting their constitutional authority to rein in Trump’s war powers or at least convincing the White House to change course. Most of them look paralyzed, as if they have no other choice.
And Tuesday showed why they feel that way.
It looks like much of the GOP will continue to push Trump’s unpopular ballroom and his unpopular war.
They will excuse their attacks on a hugely popular American pope and legitimize his campaign of legal revenge. Americans seem to have a pretty dark view.
Them fight to win him more GOP congressional districtsAlthough some new districts could backfire on the party and result in marginal gains in 2026, this is not enough to beat back an increasingly likely blue wave.
None of this seems to do Republicans any political favors in the midterm elections, but that’s what Trump demands and they’re doing it.
Because what else is a hostage supposed to do?
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