Local election results demonstrate ‘fracturing of British politics’, says polling guru John Curtice
Polling guru Sir John Curtice said the results from the local elections so far point to a “break in British politics”.
He explained that Reform UK, which was expected to be the big winner of the contest, “wasn’t going to get 30 per cent of the vote” and that “none of the parties were very big”; This marks a change from the two-party system that dominated politics in Britain.
While Nigel Farage claims results so far show Reform are on track to win the next general election, Labor has already suffered catastrophic losses.
Early results saw Labor hemorrhage hundreds of councilors and eight local authorities across England, while Reform, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats made gains.
The Prime Minister faces even heavier losses as vote counting continues on Friday in both the UK local elections and elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd.
But Sir John told the BBC: “It may well be possible for Labor to lose fewer than 1,500 seats, which perhaps some would say is potentially the tipping point for attempts to unseat Keir Starmer.”
He said: “There is still a long way to go and it must be said emphatically that the big picture is that the Reformation is ahead of us.
“It is clear that Reformation has received the most votes in the elections announced so far, just like it did in last year’s council elections.
“And they’re basically trailed by four parties that are all just under 20 percent, somewhere between 15 and 20 percent, but they’re actually pretty hard to figure out right now.”
He continued: “But neither party is very big, let’s be clear. Even Reformation probably doesn’t have 30 per cent of the vote, so the fracture in British politics is highlighted and confirmed by these results.”
He added that the Greens had struggled to convert votes into seats so far because they had “too many reliable second and third place positions”.
Sir Keir has faced speculation about his leadership, with the Times reporting overnight that energy minister Ed Miliband had urged him to set a timetable for his departure.
But deputy prime minister David Lammy urged his party not to play a “packet-dealing” game with the leadership in response to the election results.
Labor sources noted poor local election results under previous prime ministers, including Sir Tony Blair, who lost 1,100 councilors in 1999 but was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2001.
Mr Farage, meanwhile, praised the early results from Thursday’s local elections as a sign his party was still heading towards victory in the general election, which is still up to three years away.
An ebullient Mr Farage heralded to reporters a “historic shift in British politics”, noting that his team had “gained stunning percentages in traditional old Labor areas” and said “there is no left or right anymore”.
The reform leader compared the significant gains to overcoming Becher’s Brook, a difficult jump in the Grand National.
“If we cross Becher Creek and have a good descent, we go on to win the Grand National.
“What is very clear to me is that our voters will now stay with us until the end.”
By early Friday, with 38 of 136 councils reporting full results, Reform’s gains had surpassed 230 seats, while Labor had lost more than 170 seats.
Mr Farage’s party also took control of the first council of those contests, taking Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Conservatives.
