Holyrood Election 2026: Yet more misery for Labour, while Reform split vote much to Tories’ dismay

The polls have closed and the counting has begun. We’ll find out who came out on top in the Scottish election later today as the results start to fall. Early indications are that John Swinney and the SNP will fall short of a majority. So will this open the door to a new coalition with the Greens?

Rival parties are targeting 70 constituency seats chosen by first-past-the-post voting. There are a further eight constituencies with seven additional MSPs, each based on some form of proportional voting. A total of 129 deputies are elected.

The magic number for a majority is therefore 65, although this seems unlikely if the SNP and the Greens were to share power once again, a pro-independence majority could emerge. This could put more pressure on Keir Starmer regarding the possibility of IndyRef2.