The five ‘Bs’ and three ‘Ts’ at the heart of the China summit

The last time Donald Trump paid a state visit to Xi Jinping in Beijing, a fistfight broke out between two security teams whose leaders were meeting in an adjoining room.

A “brief altercation” reportedly took place after Chinese officials tried to block the entry of a US military aide carrying a nuclear football, a briefcase that allows the US president to master the nuclear codes.

The incident in 2017, although temporary, is well remembered. Just this week Wall StreetJournal‘s chief China correspondent, Lingling Wei, said at an event held at the Atlantic Council that the fight should be ended by two US and Chinese diplomats.

He said the Chinese diplomat was none other than Qin Gang, who was then chief of protocol at China’s foreign ministry and became first ambassador to the United States and then Chinese foreign minister before suddenly disappearing from public life in 2023.

Trump’s return to Beijing this week takes place in a very different world. COVID-19 has come and gone, the AI ​​revolution is underway, and critical minerals have taken on new importance.

But some things haven’t changed. The US president is hungry for a trade deal, as he was in his first term. China’s military accumulation and Taiwan’s future are still of great importance. And America’s decline, which China sees as the natural consequence of its own inevitable rise, has certainly not occurred at the same pace.

despite everything

It is noteworthy that this meeting is being held. The project, originally planned for the end of March, was postponed once due to the US-Israeli war with Iran, China’s strategic and economic partner.

At the time, analysts thought it would be difficult for Trump to visit Beijing with a complex, unresolved military conflict on his hands. Although there is no peace agreement today to end the war, there is a ceasefire.

Kurt Campbell, former US deputy secretary of state during the Joe Biden administration, says it is interesting that Trump is still determined to go. “Other countries that he has shown excitement about building relationships with are undeniably Russia, North Korea and China,” he says.

Campbell, co-founder of consultancy The Asia Group, says it is also remarkable that Beijing is ready to host Trump under these conditions. “I think it shows that they want stability and predictability, too.”

Kelly Magsamen, private secretary of Biden’s defense minister Lloyd Austin, says that under normal circumstances, some kind of US military demonstration, such as a double aircraft carrier strike group operation in the South China Sea, would be held as a show of power before the summit.

“You don’t see this kind of activity, quite the opposite,” says Magsamen, who works at The Asia Group. In fact, the war in Iran shifted most of the U.S. Navy’s assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East.

China and Xi entered the meeting in a much stronger position than Trump, says Scott Kennedy, advisor to China business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“China has goals such as extending the ceasefire, reducing technology restrictions on semiconductor imports, and reducing tariffs,” he said at a press conference on Thursday (US time).

“But even if they don’t get much results on these issues, unless there is an explosion at the meeting and President Trump goes and escalates tensions again, China emerges fundamentally stronger.”

A proper truce

Typically choreographed minute by minute and with outcomes largely prearranged, such high-profile summits are as much about avoiding disaster or embarrassment as they are about achieving something.

Despite the long-term strategic rivalry between the United States and China, most analysts agree that the two countries have a common interest in maintaining the uneasy economic truce they reached at their meeting in Busan, South Korea, last year.

“They are both at an impasse,” says Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat and now a China expert at the International Crisis Group.

“The Trump administration tried to use coercive trade leverage on China and was inadequately prepared for China’s response, especially on rare earths and critical minerals. The United States is trying to put itself in a position where China can no longer exert pressure on it.”

Meanwhile, China is trying to wean itself off its dependence on technological products for which the United States imposes export controls, such as advanced chips.

“But while each is working toward a higher level of autonomy, they ironically have an incentive to prevent a strategic conflict from escalating too much,” Kovrig says.

Ryan Hass, a China researcher at the Brookings Institution, says the lesson of 2025 for Trump and Xi is: “Each can harm the other, but not without inviting painful retaliation.”

Although there are still some concrete items on the agenda that could produce concrete results, most China observers have low expectations for this meeting.

The US prioritizes what Kennedy calls the five “B’s”: Boeing, beef, beans (things it wants to sell more of), and the Board of Trade and Board of Investment, which it wants to establish.

Meanwhile, China has three “T’s”: Taiwan, tariffs, and technology. In the latter two, he wants lower tariffs and fewer restrictions on exports of advanced U.S. semiconductors. On Taiwan, he would welcome the United States to toughen its language to formally oppose Taiwan’s independence or reduce arms sales to Taipei.

Taiwan question

When Trump and Xi spoke in February, the Chinese leader made clear that Taiwan was at the top of his agenda. A Chinese summary of the phone call said Xi impressed Trump that Taiwan was “the most important issue in Sino-US relations” and that Washington should handle the arms sales issue with “common sense”.

This comes after the Trump administration authorized the largest-ever arms sales package to Taiwan in December, worth US$11.1 billion ($15.4 billion). This was the second package during Trump’s term in office.

Still, some experts think Trump, in his pursuit of a grand bargain with Beijing and his tolerance for dictatorial world leaders, may find reason to roll back U.S. commitments to the island over which China claims sovereignty.

Kovrig says Beijing benefits from leaders who focus on short-term business deals while playing the long game.

“The risk is that a leader like Trump, looking for short-term deals and wanting to look good on camera, will over time give up on the subtle strategic things that allow him to change the language of China, the way things like Taiwan are talked about, the way China is talked about,” he says.

“It’s not just about language and influence. It’s also about using those to increase influence and power through political capital with other countries.”

Kovrig says China knows Trump is only there for now, and the next president could always change the US position again. “They’re not just interested in trying to play games with Trump. They’re interested in creating change.”

Lisa Curtis, who served as deputy assistant to the president and the National Security Council’s senior director for South and Central Asia during Trump’s first term, said neighbors like Australia will carefully monitor any change in U.S. behavior.

‘Other countries that he has shown enthusiasm about building relationships with… are undeniably Russia, North Korea and China.’

Kurt Campbell

“Many countries are concerned that Trump’s push for a trade deal will compromise Taiwan’s security,” he says. “If I were an Australian official, I would want to make sure that US policy towards Taiwan remains firm and does not change.”

Curtis, who now directs the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security, doubts Trump will change America’s position on Taiwan independence.

“I think there will be a lot of opposition on Capitol Hill,” he says. “I’m sure Republican congressmen have expressed concern about this. But I think one of the questions is what he can do about Taiwan arms sales. I’m more concerned about that.”

Edgard Kagan, a former U.S. ambassador to Malaysia and now a senior adviser at CSIS, says it is standard practice for China to position Taiwan as the critical issue before such meetings. But Xi will also need to be careful about asking Trump for “something they know they can’t get.”

Wildcard: Iran

Because of its overly heavy-handed approach to policymaking and its distaste for traditional bodies like the National Security Council, the Trump administration tends to enter summits with less preparation; This is not China’s way either.

This meeting was preceded by trade talks led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, so most experts believe there will be tangible results on this front. But there is much less certainty about Iran, where the situation varies from day to day or hour to hour.

Kagan says in his experience, Beijing tries to freeze the agenda for weeks before the summit. “That’s not going to be the case this time. That’s why I think it’s a wildcard.”

Trump seeks a way out of the war but wants Tehran to make more concessions; Both he and Xi need the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and trade flows to resume.

“Both sides have leverage and room to negotiate,” says Kovrig. “Trump wants a visible foreign policy victory. Xi needs the opening of Hormuz. He wants to potentially contribute to the opening of Hormuz, but he does not want to be seen as carrying water for the United States or imposing American demands on Iran. This could affect his credibility with other countries.”

Curtis says China could seize the opportunity to use its influence on Tehran to turn this into a diplomatic coup. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing this week. The meeting ended with China’s call to reopen the strait as soon as possible.

“They like to be seen as playing a useful role in promoting a resolution of the US-Israeli war in Iran,” says Curtis. “They want to be seen as an effective country that promotes peaceful solutions. They want to be seen as a responsible international player.

“They also want to appeal to the global south. They believe that if they can contribute to ending the energy crisis, this will increase their international reputation and credibility.”

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