Neither US nor Iran can sustain strait of Hormuz standoff indefinitely | US-Israel war on Iran
The exchange of fire between Iran and the United States demonstrates the serious instability of the situation in the Middle East. While the US strikes late Thursday were just a “love tap”, the reality is that neither side can sustain the high-stakes standoff in the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely, according to US President Donald Trump.
The United States and its ally Israel demonstrated comprehensive military superiority over Iran with minimal casualties in the 38-day war; but Washington failed to translate this into strategic dominance and allowed Iran to take control of the strait, driving up oil prices.
The most important development this week was the collapse of Trump’s Freedom Project after just 50 hours on Tuesday. The unilateral US proposal aimed to create a safe zone for commercial shipping on the southern Omani side of the strait, using more than 100 warplanes and several naval destroyers. Two merchant ships took advantage of this.
It ended over objections from the Saudis, who were not consulted before launch. Riyadh has refused to allow the Freedom Project access to US airspace and bases, concerned that it could result in the resumption of all-out war. It was also not discussed with major shipping companies and it was unclear whether it would be effective.
Richard Meade, editor of Lloyd’s List, an expert on the shipping industry, said this week: “To our knowledge, no major industry body has been approached by the US to hold any briefing sessions.
“Safety teams in the area remain unclear as to what is going on and none of the shipowners I have spoken to in the last 24 hours have confidence that this will change anything.”
Iran retains the ability to threaten and damage tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and effectively stop all other shipping. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, no commercial ships passed through the strait on Wednesday and Thursday, while more than 1,550 ships were stranded in the Gulf.
Burcu Özçelik, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said: “Iran has proven to be a formidable adversary, displaying a resilience that many who should know better could not have predicted.
“Trump wanted a quick victory and was not prepared to mobilize the significant military force necessary to unseat the regime.”
Although decision-making appears to be fragmented and the health of supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still publicly uncertain, most assessments are that Tehran’s regime has, for now, been entrenched by the bombing campaign launched by the United States and Israel. CIA assessments leaked this week show it retains 70% of its missiles and 75% of its launchers; it may also retain half of Shahed’s attack drones.
Iran appears confident that the United States will back down on its demands for a complete end to its nuclear weapons program, which includes calls for the dismantling of its nuclear facilities, a 20-year moratorium on enrichment and the transfer of near-weapons-grade uranium. We can see that Trump appears reluctant to restart a full bombing campaign, perhaps in light of depleted high-end US missile stockpiles, given a drop of between a quarter and a half during the $25bn (£18bn) Epic Fury campaign.
Diplomats who meet with Iranian negotiators complain that Tehran likes to act as if it has endless time. Not. The parallel US blockade east of the strait, where two US aircraft carrier strike groups currently operate, also prevents Iran from exporting crude oil. US Central Command has turned away 52 ships since April 13. Reports from inside Iran Rising inflation, unemployment and unpaid wages.
On Wednesday, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, sought to support Iranian resistance, arguing that the United States was trying to “disrupt the integrity of the country” through “a naval blockade, economic pressure and media manipulation.” A US intelligence assessment leaked to the Washington Post this week suggested Iran could hold out for three to four months, after which it could face more serious economic difficulties.
Iran has no close allies in this moment of isolation. China is believed to be providing drone parts, similar to its aid to Russia, and there are reports that it may try to secretly send improvised air defense systems to Tehran, but these are basic defensive weapons. A presentation by Russian GRU military intelligence to Iran, seen by the Economist, suggests Moscow could send 5,000 fibre-optic drones; these weapons will only be useful against US ground troops if they capture a Gulf island.
In any case, it is not clear how any military escalation would help Iran. It is impossible to predict the country and regime’s ability to withstand the US blockade, but continuing to do so could be an economic disaster for the population. “This is the rebels’ dilemma,” says Özçelik. “At first, survival is winning, but there is always a point where that is no longer enough. We don’t know when Iran gets to that point.”
But Trump is indecisive and impatient. The US President faces the political problem of needing to solve the economic crisis he has created, while making progress on the nuclear issue. High inflation is already affecting large parts of the world economy, and the impact of oil shortages is particularly severe in Asia. It’s a precarious outcome, and yet the two army groups face each other locked and loaded.
