Albanese government lifts migration forecast in federal budget amid Coalition pressure

Albania’s government expects 35,000 more immigrants to remain in the country this financial year than previously anticipated as it prepares to unveil a proposal to reduce immigration to combat the Coalition’s wave of voters heading to One Nation.

In Tuesday’s budget documents, the government’s forecast for net overseas migration for this financial year rose to 295,000 from a previous expectation of 260,000. Immigration is expected to fall in coming years, but next year’s figures are 20,000 immigrants higher than previously predicted.

Net overseas migration, which follows departures from long-term arrivals in the country, has become a hotly debated issue, with One Nation, the Nationals and the Liberals claiming that “mass immigration” is denying Australians access to housing and infrastructure.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor is expected to announce his party’s desired immigration rate in his budget response speech on Thursday. The coalition indicated that it would attribute migration figures to new housing construction.

In his first press conference after ousting former Liberal leader Sussan Ley in February, Taylor said: “The numbers are too high, the standards are too low… our policy will also be to put Australians first.”

He has since called for a “discriminatory” immigration policy based on values.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, whose party won its first federal lower house seat in Saturday’s election, accused Taylor of copying her party’s stance on immigration.

“Do I trust that they will deliver results like One Nation? No, because the Liberal Party is full of moderates… It’s the same rhetoric but they won’t deliver. I don’t think they will go far enough,” he said last month.

Hanson’s populist party has surged in the polls, falling behind the Coalition’s lead vote and trailing the opposition in the Resolve Political Monitor polls conducted by this imprint.

One Nation wants to reduce net overseas migration to 130,000 per year. While the coalition’s final immigration number has not yet been announced, figures below 200,000 are suggested.

Finance Minister Jim Chalmers delivers his budget speech without mentioning immigration figures.Alex Ellinghausen

Net overseas migration will reach 225,000 in 2027-28, rather than a year earlier as predicted in December’s mid-year update, according to Tuesday’s budget documents.

Budget documents said the updated forecasts were moderately higher than previously expected because temporary visa holders were leaving Australia at lower rates than in the past.

Immigration from New Zealand is expected to remain high as workers seek a stronger employment market in Australia.

Labor has defended its grip on immigration and pledged to reduce net overseas migration.

Home Secretary Tony Burke took a tough stance on visa refusals on character grounds, saying the government was “bringing the numbers down and raising the standards”.

Migration numbers have been sliding downward since a peak of more than 500,000 when borders reopened in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Budget papers say Labour’s immigration policies will put downward pressure on net overseas migration.