Phillies vs Red Sox betting preview favors Boston through five innings despite Philadelphia’s hot streak

We have a runaway day in baseball, which means many series will end today. There are a few teams starting but for the most part every team plays every Wednesday. This means there are tons of games to review and find good bets to place. Personally, I like the team I have for today’s game between the Phillies and Red Sox.

The Philadelphia Phillies have already had a crazy season, and we’re not even halfway through May yet. They are 20-22, a year after becoming one of the best teams in baseball. The offseason brought some hope as they re-signed two of their key players, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto. However, this year has not yet gone as planned. They fired their manager after a 9-19 start, and the team responded after that move. The team is 11-3 under Don Mattingly.

Looking to continue this run for the Phillies is tonight’s starter, Andrew Painter. When you look at his stat line, you have some hesitation in rooting for Philadelphia’s right-hander. Painter is 1-4 this year with a 6.89 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. To make matters worse, he has a worse road ERA than his home ERA. In three road trips, he allowed 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched. It’s also his worst start of the season; With eight runs earned in 3.2 innings. The Red Sox have never faced Painter, so he may have a slight advantage, but teams are hitting .295 against him for the first time in the lineup.

The Boston Red Sox have never been without news or attention, but they’ve had their fair share of stories this season, too. They are only 17-24 this year and the expectation was that this team would compete for the AL East. I don’t think it’s necessarily impossible, but they need to figure out their swing as soon as possible. They scored just 157 points during the season, one of the lowest in the league. They also fired their manager, Alex Cora, but did not see the return they had hoped for. They are 7-7 since Cora was fired. This situation was not welcomed by the players.

ALEX CORA REJECTED PHILLIES MANAGEMENT JOB JUST DAYS AFTER BEING FIRED BY RED SOX: REPORT

Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora walks back into the dugout during the sixth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts on April 7, 2026. (Barry Chin/Boston Globe/Getty Images)

One of the guys the team was hoping would provide stability to the club this season was tonight’s starter, Sonny Gray. He was acquired from the Cardinals in the offseason and has been a strong addition to the club thus far. He is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He pitched great at Fenway with a 1.80 ERA. The problem is that it doesn’t delve very deeply into the games. He reached the sixth inning just twice in six innings. Phillies’ hitters are generally doing well against Gray with a .250 batting average.

Alec Bohm is probably the guy you want to look at if you’re looking for player support; He is 6 for 13 against Gray. Schwarber is 2-for-24 against him with 10 strikeouts, so his under-0.5 innings could be an appearance (+153), but he’ll almost certainly get an inning or two against the Red Sox bullpen. Schwarber is +126 over 2 innings. I’d probably go for the Schwarber game instead of Bohm.

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Philadelphia Phillies coach Don Mattingly stands on the bench during a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on April 26, 2026 in Cumberland, Georgia. (Dale Zanine/Imagn Images)

I’m taking the Red Sox for the game. I know the line is tipped in the Phillies’ favor, so I’ll cut to this and just play the first five innings. Gray had a good start at home, the more reliable starter, and Painter was terrible overall. Although it was bad overall, it was a complete disaster away from home. Give me Boston -135 by five.

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