The Cuba situation is starting to resemble a pre-conflict playbook
A man holds a sign outside Versailles Restaurant in support of charges announced by U.S. federal prosecutors against the former Cuban president on May 20, 2026 in Miami, Florida.
Chandan Khanna | Afp | Getty Images
The US pressure campaign against Cuba appears to have entered a new phase, raising serious questions about the Trump administration’s end game for the communist-run Caribbean island.
Ministry of Justice on Wednesday unsealed An indictment against former Cuban President Raul Castro charging him with murder in the 1996 shooting down of two planes by the country’s military. Castro, 94, was the country’s defense minister at the time of the incident.
The move, which took place on May 20, a symbolically important date considered the official birth of the Republic of Cuba, marked one of the sharpest escalations in tensions between Washington and Havana.
FBI Director Kash Patel called the indictment against Castro and five others “a major step toward accountability.”
The measure is part of a broader effort by President Donald Trump to achieve regime change in Cuba; This strategy includes the recent tightening of economic sanctions and the push for an oil blockade of the island since January.
This caused a worsening economic crisis and left Cuba facing its greatest test since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Cuban Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy said last week that the island was running out of oil and diesel, describing the country’s situation as “extremely tense.”
The escalating humanitarian crisis in Cuba remains a wildcard that could force both sides to improvise responses.
Robert Munks
Head of Americas research at Verisk Maplecroft
Some Cuban officials have raised alarm in recent weeks about a possible US military intervention.
This is a separate media coverage of Cuba. allegedly More than 300 military drones are being built from Russia and Iran for potential use against US targets, and the Trump administration is also pursuing intelligence gathering flights Off the coast of Cuba, it reflected a pattern that emerged before U.S. military operations in both Venezuela and Iran.
Antoni Kapcia, a professor of Latin American history at the University of Nottingham in England, said he constantly doubts that direct military intervention is being seriously considered by the United States.
In his statement to CNBC via e-mail, Kapcia said that the state in Cuba always takes the military threat seriously and prepares for it.
It arrives in Havana port on July 27, 2024, as part of the fleet consisting of the Russian patrol ship Neustrahimiy, training ship Smolniy and offshore oil tanker Yelnya. The Russian fleet will remain on the island from 27 to 30 July.
Yamil Lage | Afp | Getty Images
“The Pentagon has certainly long held the view that military action would result in US soldiers being encased in body bags on an unacceptable scale, which appears to be the US reason. [keeps] “It’s hot and cold on Cuba, ‘back channel’ negotiations one minute and threats to take action the next,” Kapcia said.
“So far, [Trump] He openly talked about continuing to use economic measures to strangle the system, and that’s exactly what he’s doing; cheaper than war and certainly [life] “It’s even harder for ordinary Cubans,” he added.
CNBC has contacted the Cuban Foreign Ministry and a White House spokesperson and is awaiting a response.
What’s next for Cuba?
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Wednesday dismissed Castro’s indictment stated on social media that it was “a political maneuver without any legal basis, intended only to fill the fabricated dossier they used to justify the madness of the military attack on #Cuba.”
Díaz-Canel at the beginning of the week in question US threats of military strikes against Havana were well known, he added, and if they materialized “it would trigger a bloodbath with incalculable consequences”.
Trump had previously talked about the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba and said the White House could turn its sights to Havana after the Iran war. The US president also said he could do anything he wanted with the country, adding that he thought he would have the “honor” of “taking Cuba”.
Robert Munks, head of research for the Americas at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the Trump administration’s exact intentions remain unclear, but Washington’s current stance points to letting pressure do the work rather than a direct move.
Cuba’s most existential risk is not foreign intervention but “whether the state can keep the lights on long enough to maintain control,” Munks told CNBC via email.
“While security forces are likely to keep the unrest in check in the short term, there is the potential for serious instability as power outages lead to even greater food and water shortages,” Munks said.
“The escalating humanitarian crisis in Cuba remains a wildcard that could force both sides to improvise responses,” he continued. “We expect more aid to come from regional countries like Mexico and Uruguay, but the US blockade will continue to impose daily lived experiences for ordinary Cubans.”
Alexander B. Gray, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. in question The Trump administration’s end game towards Cuba is clear.
“This is to delegitimize the Castro regime and create the conditions for internal change that will be more aligned with U.S. interests in the medium term,” Gray said in a memo published Wednesday. he said.
“The United States’ interest is in a regime in Havana that is aligned with U.S. security priorities and opposes extrahemispheric intervention by U.S. rivals such as China and Russia,” he added.
