India may end refined copper import dependence this year, says Hindalco MD

India could end its dependence on imported refined copper as early as this year as new domestic smelting capacity and expansion projects begin narrowing the supply gap, according to Hindalco Industries managing director Satish Pai.

The comments come at a time when policymakers, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have flagged India’s dependence on imports of critical commodities such as copper and gold as a strategic concern.

“By the end of this year, India will no longer be dependent on imported copper,” Pai said during a post-earnings interaction with the media, pointing out that new smelting capacity and recycling initiatives will come online.

This change stems from many developments. The commissioning of a new copper smelter in Gujarat by the Adani Group is expected to significantly increase domestic production.

Hindalco is also increasing its capabilities, including a 50,000 tonne copper recycling plant and copper pipe smelter project, Pai said.

Hindalco’s copper sales fell to 487,000 tonnes in FY26 from 491,000 tonnes in the previous year. Adani’s Kutch Copper reported sales of 113,600 tonnes in FY25 against an installed capacity of 500,000 tonnes.

India’s copper sector has become structurally import-dependent since the closure of smelters at Vedanta’s Sterlite Copper plant in Tuticorin in 2018, turning the country from a net exporter to a net importer. Since then, the increase in demand from sectors such as energy, infrastructure, electric vehicles and renewable energy has further widened the gap between domestic supply and consumption.

“While India’s refined copper consumption is currently estimated to be around 1.7 million tonnes (mnt), the country continues to rely on imports to bridge the supply gap, given that the effective domestic refined copper production capacity of major primary producers is around 1.2 million tonnes,” said Jayprakash Sahu, managing director, non-ferrous, at commodity market intelligence firm BigMint.

Sahu said refined copper imports are expected to continue in the near term until Kutch Copper stabilizes and increases the utilization of its 0.5 million tonne capacity smelter, a process that may take time due to gradual operational scaling.

Pai said India could become self-sufficient in refined copper, but the country would continue to rely on imported copper concentrate, which is the primary smelting raw material for refined copper and also processed into products such as bars and wires.

“To be fair, we will still be dependent on copper ore from outside,” Pai said, noting that domestic mining production remains limited.

To mitigate this risk, Hindalco signed long-term contracts for copper concentrate; Approximately 85% of the requirements were tied to five-year agreements, ensuring supply stability. Pai said that in parallel, the company started exploration activities in India and the first signs point to promising reserves.

“What I hope will happen in five years is that we will be able to get at least 20-25% of our needs domestically. Today, we get about 10% from Hindustan Copper’s copper mines,” Pai said.

On the raw material side, India is expected to remain structurally dependent on imported copper concentrates, blister copper and copper scrap as domestic ore availability remains limited. These imports will continue to play a critical role in supporting both primary and secondary copper production in the country. Big Mint’s Sahu said that given India’s growing copper demand and limited mining resources, concentrate imports are unlikely to fall significantly despite upcoming smelter expansions.

The push for self-sufficiency in copper is in line with India’s broader industrial strategy, particularly as demand from energy transition sectors accelerates. Big Mint predicts copper demand will increase by 10-12% annually, driven by renewable energy, EVs, transmission infrastructure, electronics manufacturing and urbanization.

According to Big Mint, India’s copper concentrate imports increased from 1.02 million tonnes in FY24 to 1.18 million tonnes in FY25.

Hindalco’s copper earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBIT) in FY26 were as follows: ₹2,809 crore, downwards ₹3,025 crore in FY26. About 25% of Hindalco’s revenue from operations came from its copper business.