A ruse, a brave gamble or a fantasy? Why Trump’s most puzzling Iran move yet is unlikely to work

If Donald Trump’s search for a way out of the Iran war wasn’t difficult enough, it has added a new goal that threatens to greatly complicate the already fractured politics of the Middle East.

The President said he asked on Monday Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt and Jordan to participate in the first term inheritance agreement known as Abraham AccordsIt aims to strengthen historical ties with Israel.

The proposal created another storm of confusion as U.S. and Iranian negotiators haggled over language on a proposed memorandum of understanding that could provide a final framework. peace talks.

However, it is difficult to believe that the political conditions in these countries, exacerbated by Israel’s role in the Iran war, will allow even powerful Arab and Muslim state leaders to offer Israel the concessions Trump wants.

And Trump’s statement that even Iran could join the agreements in the event of a peace agreement echoes his previous statement that “Middle Eastern RivieraIt was built on the ruins of Gaza.

Trump said, “Wow, that would be something special!” wrote on social media It’s Monday for your new offer. “This will be the most important Agreement signed by any of the countries in these Great but always Conflict Countries.”

Considering the raids in which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, it is unthinkable that the Islamic Republic will even recognize its sworn enemy Israel any time soon. And Israel is unlikely to consider taking such a step with an enemy it sees as an existential threat to the Jewish people.

There must also be questions about Trump’s ability to persuade his allies to fall in line after launching a war that has disrupted regional stability and caused deep crises. economic damage.

So what to make of Trump’s new gambit, which emerged after his weekend virtual talks with Arab and Muslim leaders about Iran peace efforts?

One explanation for this is that despite the disappointment of the inconclusive war, approval ratings At home, he has not given up on his grand visions for the transformation of the Middle East. A period of reconciliation and the expansion of economic, political and cultural ties are vital to any hope of drying up the historical poison that makes each war a harbinger of the next.

But it is clear that this is not a good moment. Any genuine belief by Trump to the contrary would raise serious doubts about his ability to grasp current realities in the region. And this would not be new: It has been a constant problem that has led him to underestimate Iran as a military adversary and apparently assume that his regime will quickly fall.

But Tehran did not yield. For example, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Greater Tehran claims that his country is now stronger than it was on the first day of the war, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency.

There may be some political art at work. One possibility is that Trump may have hoped to offer incentives — in the form of meaningful security benefits — to the Israelis to accept a deal with Iran that would be unpopular in the Jewish state.

Or maybe he wanted to appease Republican hawks Over the weekend, he openly wondered whether he would bow to Iran on a framework agreement that appeared likely to yield little short-term progress on critical nuclear issues.

But Trump’s critics may conclude that he is trying to fill the air with another social media post, either to distract from the difficult pace of talks with Iran or to portray himself as pushing for another famous victory after a war that dashed expectations of a quick and overwhelming victory.

Why the Abraham Accords argument probably won’t work

Many Gulf Arab countries have higher priorities right now than worrying about their future relations with Israel.

The conflict, which some states did not want, has wreaked havoc on the business model and stability of the Gulf states as they seek to reinvent themselves as oases for wealthy Westerners. The region’s economy was weakened by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a possibility that every foreign policy expert expected; But this surprised the Trump team.

When the war ends, these U.S. allies will face a new environment that may include a more unstable and aggressive Iran. They may reconsider their national security posture after seeing themselves exposed to attack by Iranian drones and missiles because of their relationships with Washington and the US armed forces. The need for regional structures may replace new agreements with Israel.

And Trump is asking Arab countries to take an unpleasant step. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is widely disliked among the public, in part because of the political obstacles that preceded the Iran war.

Saudi Arabia, for example, has long made clear that joining the Abraham Accords is contingent on opening the path to a Palestinian state. This seems further away than ever after the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza during Israel’s offensive following Hamas terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023.

Israel’s ongoing operations in the region and the violence perpetrated by extremist settlers in the West Bank have further narrowed the space for political compromise. Israel demonstrates that it believes that maintaining its security will be a permanent duty; This is a stance that will further challenge regional politics. For example, he said on Monday that he plans to intensify operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon; He says that this step was taken in coordination with the USA.

“Most regional perceptions of Israel are not flattering at all,” Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN’s Becky Anderson on CNN International on Monday.

Speaking from Bahrain, Alhasan said, “I think many countries in the region see Israel’s actions as extremely dangerous and destabilizing.” “Israel was one of the two main actors that started this regional war, and I think countries are increasingly coming together to balance Israel’s strategic aggression in the region.”

CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton, a retired US Air Force colonel, called Trump’s plan “wishful thinking” in many respects. “Strategically, it makes sense to eventually get Iran on our side,” he said on CNN News Center, which is part of what Trump is looking at. But we’re not there yet.”

Leighton added: “And certainly getting the Arab nations to agree to be part of the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel at that particular point, that might be a bridge too far.”

The general elections to be held in Israel at the end of this year also eliminate the possibility of Saudi Arabia or other states that do not trust Netanyahu’s far-right coalition to enter into new agreements with Iran, even if the war ends.

A persistent flaw in US Middle East policy

The Abraham Accords were signed between Israel and four Arab states (Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan) in 2020 and were considered by Trump aides as one of the greatest achievements of his first term.

Trump had always envisioned expanding the agreements, and that appeared a possibility early in his second term, when his team was negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza and laying out so far unrealized plans to cement a lasting peace.

But at a time when the US side has so far failed to ensure the opening of the strait, let alone solving Iran’s nuclear program, the idea of ​​a major expansion of the Abraham Accords seems almost absurd.

Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were pursuing big goals in the Middle East and Ukraine, and so far they have failed to achieve them; This led critics to question whether it was wise to send two businessmen to sort out knotty diplomatic issues. His relative failures have undermined the central conceit of Trump’s presidency: that he is a master negotiator and a historic dealmaker who can achieve breakthroughs beyond past presidents.

This may be another example of Washington adopting positions that seem logical or possible from the Western Hemisphere but unravel once it engages with the Middle East. This isn’t just a failure of the Trump administration; This was a flaw of US policy for much of the 21st century, including in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The impracticality of the strategy is also reflected in Trump’s inclusion of Pakistan in his list. Joining the Abraham Accords would require tremendous change in a Muslim country that already has unstable political conditions. Although Islamabad has sought to engage with Trump, it has never officially recognized Israel and has no public plans to do so.

The President acknowledged that many countries on his list may have reasons not to participate. A source familiar with the matter told CNN’s Jennifer Hansler that Trump has encouraged Arab and Muslim states to join but has not made it a condition of any deal with Iran. In any case, after starting a war that tarnished America’s power and influence, there is reason to question whether his wishes really matter.

“It is not entirely clear what President Trump has to show in terms of his performance in waging or managing this war in terms of thinking that he can impose such a demand on countries in the region,” Alhasan said.

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