Concerns mount that Belarus could be a launchpad for a new Russian offensive in Ukraine
More than four years ago, Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko allowed his long-time ally Russia to use his territory invade Ukraine. Now officials in Kiev are warning that Lukashenko may again allow his territory to be used as a launching pad for further attacks by Kremlin forces.
Although Belarus did not send troops to the war, Lukashenko supported President Vladimir Putin’s war efforts. It hosts Russia’s nuclear weapons and produces components for Moscow’s military industries, as well as military infrastructure. Countries held earlier this month joint exercises Nuclear forces including Russian weapons deployed in Belarus.
Lukashenko, in power for over three decades, has ruled the nation of 9.5 million with an iron fist, relentlessly cracking down on dissent and relying on its close ties with Russia, as well as subsidies from the Kremlin’s coffers, to counteract repeated Western sanctions.
Military cooperation between Moscow and Minsk increasingly worried Ukraine’s allies.
Belarus’ role in Ukraine
When Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of exercises rushed towards Kiev, just 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of the border.
Putin’s hopes of quickly capturing Kiev were shattered by strong Ukrainian resistance, and convoys of Russian tanks lining the narrow roads became easy prey.
Just over a month after the invasion, Russian troops, suffering heavy losses and struggling to maintain supply lines, withdrew from Kiev and other areas they had captured in northeastern Ukraine in what the Kremlin described as a “goodwill gesture.”
Belarus hosted the first talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations as Moscow sought to negotiate a quick end to the conflict weeks after it began. The talks were moved to Istanbul, but no agreement was reached.
As the conflict turned into a war of attrition, Belarus played a key role in supporting Moscow’s war effort. Belarusian facilities have produced key components including microchips and other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery munitions and heavy trucks carrying Russian ballistic missiles.
Ukraine’s presidential envoy responsible for sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said that parts of the Oreshnik ballistic missile that Russia fired at Ukraine on May 24 contained microchips from Belarus. He called on Western allies to tighten enforcement of sanctions against Belarus.
Belarus also provided training grounds to Moscow’s troops, hosted joint exercises and offered its hospitals for the treatment of wounded Russian soldiers.
BELPOL, a group of former military and law enforcement officials opposed to Lukashenko, said Belarusian industries were effectively integrated into the Kremlin’s war machine. It is stated that more than 500 industrial facilities in Belarus are involved in the production of weapons and ammunition, repair of military equipment and logistics services.
“The Lukashenko regime is quite seriously involved in the war,” BELPOL chief Uladzimir Zhyhar told the Associated Press. “Lukashenko is helping Russia in any way he can.”
Zhyhar said construction of a large shooting range and barracks for a large number of troops has begun in the Gomel region on the Ukrainian border. He added that Ukraine was forced to maintain large numbers of forces along its border with Belarus, preventing them from engaging Russian troops along more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) of frontline.
Under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
Belarus, which is also a neighbor of NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, hosted some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. In December, Russia announced that its last medium-range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered service in Belarus.
Russia has used the conventionally armed version of the Oreshnik to strike facilities in Ukraine three times, in November 2024 and then again in January and earlier this month.
In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine and brought Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. Putin said Moscow would retain control of nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus but would allow its ally to choose targets in case of conflict.
Earlier this month, Russia and Belarus held large-scale exercises that included the delivery of nuclear warheads to missile units and preparations for launch. As part of the exercise, a Belarusian missile team tested the nuclear-capable Iskander missile from a range in southern Russia.
“Belarus does not have military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow deems this necessary for its own strategy, Moscow will naturally use Belarus as a launching pad for a new invasion of Ukraine or some kind of armed conflict with NATO countries,” Zhyhar said, noting that Belarus offers “a very convenient springboard” for such an invasion.
Zelenskyy warned of an attack from Belarus
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said intelligence services had learned that Moscow had recently stepped up efforts to “draw Belarus even deeper into the war and launch additional offensive operations precisely from Belarusian territory.” He said the target could be along the Chernihiv-Kyiv region or against a NATO country on the border with Belarus.
Zelenskyy said he had ordered military and security agencies to prepare a response and strengthen northern defenses.
Lukashenko denied any aggressive plans and declared that Belarus would not enter into conflict unless attacked.
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister and now secretary of the Security Council, also rejected Zelenskyy’s claim, calling it a scare tactic to attract more Western aid to Kiev.
But in a sign of the West’s growing concern, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to Lukashenko on May 24, underlining the risks of Belarus being dragged into war; this was the first call since the start of the occupation. Lukashenko said he would host a French envoy next week for talks on Europe’s security and prospects for easing EU sanctions.
Andrii Demchenko, spokesman for Ukraine’s Border Security Service, said last week that intelligence data showed Russia was increasingly pressuring Belarus to engage in direct war, but Ukrainian forces had yet to detect any concentration of troops and weapons near the border.
Belarus’ exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, He visited Kiev last week and stressed that “Belarus must never again become a springboard for aggression.”
“Russian tanks should never again march through Belarus to Chernihiv, Zhitomir, Rivne or Kiev,” Tsikhanouskaya told the AP. “Ukraine is fighting for itself and for all the peoples who have lived in the shadow of the empire for too long. It is fighting for the right to live in peace. And the fate of my country, Belarus, depends on Ukraine’s success.”
According to official data, the armed forces of Belarus have 48,600 soldiers; This is a very small force compared to Russia’s 1.5 million soldiers. In case of war, Belarus is ready to mobilize 290,000 people, but they will need weapons and training to be combat-ready.
“The Belarusian army is not suitable for offensive action,” said Minsk-based military analyst Alexander Alesin. “An attack from Belarus… would require the mobilization of up to 500,000 troops.”
That would mean taking all the men from the national economy and then finding arms for them, he said, adding: “I consider this option unlikely.”
He said Ukraine had built heavy fortifications on its border with Belarus and placed mines that would easily thwart any attempted attack.
“Ukrainians could easily defend themselves even with a small force and inflict heavy losses on the Belarusian army,” Alesin said. “From a military perspective, it is not possible to launch an offensive from Belarusian territory without suffering heavy losses.”
Lukashenko added that he was satisfied with Belarus’ position as an important supplier of military equipment and would strongly oppose its direct involvement in the war.
“The last thing Lukashenko wants is to fight, and he will stick to his current position at all costs so that he can avoid fighting while profiting handsomely from the war,” Alesin said.
