What investors need to know

A youth political movement in India that has gone viral on social media and whose mascot is a cockroach will face its first offline popularity test on Saturday as it plans a protest in New Delhi.

A few weeks after its founding in mid-May, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) 22 million followers on Instagram.

The so-called political CJP was launched on May 16 by political communications strategist and Boston University student Abhijeet Dipke in response to comments made by Chief Justice of India Surya Kant during a courtroom hearing, calling some unemployed youth “parasites” and “cockroaches.”

C.J.P. It claims to have over a million members and describes itself on its website as “the voice of the lazy and unemployed”.

But there is little evidence of on-the-ground support for the fake party, experts said, adding that the size of the weekend’s protests will determine whether the move will be seen as a warning sign or a market-boosting event.

Similar movements led by disaffected youth on social media in Nepal, Bangladesh and, more recently, Indonesia, have disrupted economic activity and threatened political stability. In some cases, it also led to the dismissal of the ruling party.

It’s important for investors that governments “maintain confidence that the next generation will have better economic prospects than the previous generation,” Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC.

Across Asia, this recommendation “is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain,” he added.

Bhattacharya said the move essentially reflects “growing frustration over why the much-debated demographic dividend is delivering uneven results after more than a decade of political promises and expectations.”

India’s economy has been under pressure since the start of the Iran war as energy supply disruptions led to the rupee weakening against the dollar and concerns grew about slowing growth and rising inflation.

In this context, experts said that job creation remains the biggest challenge facing the country with the world’s highest youth population.

Global equity research company Bernstein warned Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the deepening employment crisis in the country in an open letter in April. The rise of generative AI is also expected to slow hiring in India’s IT sector, while manufacturing jobs have not shown significant growth.

Other major economies in Asia, such as China, are also facing declining prospects for employment in the private sector due to economic stagnation and worsening business confidence.

CJP shares posts about lack of development and rising unemployment through its social media accounts. But Saturday’s protest will address recent discrepancies in key government-run high school and entrance exams, according to media reports. Impacted millions of students.

“This party, this youth movement He demands responsibility from the systemA spokesperson for the Cockroach party told a press conference on Wednesday, adding that the “rot” in the system runs deep and people are expressing this by supporting the party on social media.

At the press conference, it was stated that CJP demanded the resignation of Indian education minister Dharmendra Pradhan.

India’s opposition leader Rahul GandhiHe also raised the issue of incorrect marking of exams in a post published on

Ashok Malik, partner at public policy think tank The Asia Group, said the discrepancies in the exams were “pretty catastrophic”. “This is perhaps the biggest challenge the government has faced in 12 years,” he added.

He also said that the government’s performance in job creation has been poor, but these problems have not harmed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity so far.

Last month, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party scored a historic election victory in West Bengal, strengthening its grip on power even as the country faces economic challenges.

“The PM’s predictability remains quite high,” Malik said, adding that if Saturday’s protest draws a million people, it would be significant enough for investors to take notice.

The Modi government last faced harsh protests when it implemented agricultural reforms in 2020. After a year of protests by farmers across the country, Modi repealed the controversial laws in November 2021. His government returned to power for a third term, but lost its absolute majority.

“I don’t think India is at risk” [of political upheaval] “As India is a large and complex country, there is a need for significant physical presence and mobilization on the ground for any political body to have an impact,” said Ronojoy Sen, senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies.

“A mere online presence won’t work,” he added, referring to CJP’s social media handles.