How the Strait of Hormuz standoff flipped the energy security debate
In this photo from Iran’s ISNA news agency on June 1, 2026, Iranians sit at Suru Beach in Bandar Abbas along the Strait of Hormuz.
Amirhossein Khorgooei | Afp | Getty Images
HELSINKI, Finland — Iran’s influence over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has inadvertently transformed the energy security debate, effectively casting fossil fuels over renewables as the primary source of vulnerability.
For decades, the traditional narrative was that renewable energies were criticized for their intermittency problems and dependence on weather conditions, while technologies such as coal, oil and gas were seen as providing security.
Conflict in the Middle East and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically handles about 20% of the world’s global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, have reframed this debate and exposed the risks associated with fragile fossil fuel supply chains.
Energy experts and CEOs of Scandinavian energy giants fortum and Statkraft made this point clear on the sidelines of the Eurelectric Energy Summit in the Finnish capital this week.
“I mean, the big mantras, and I’m surprised we haven’t heard people talking about this yet, is that fossil fuels are now intermittent and uncertain, which of course was the argument against renewables,” Kingsmill Bond, energy strategist at UK-based think tank Ember, told CNBC in Helsinki.
“With batteries, renewables have become pretty stable, given that the sun comes up every morning. So, look, I think we’ve moved to a new environment and… we’re still very much exposed to the old system – and we need to change, especially in Europe, we need to change really quickly.”
Comparing today’s situation to the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, Bond said the current energy shock is the first time in history that policymakers have a superior alternative technology to fall back on for security.
“If you go back to the 1970s, what did we do? We built nuclear, but that took 10 years and was expensive. This time we have solar and wind, batteries, electrification and a lot of flexible technologies; they’re huge and cheap and we can scale them. That’s what’s happening,” Bond said. he said.
What about energy addition?
The war against Iran led by the USA and Israel Asia’s dependence on imported energy has been at the forefront of the global fossil fuel crisis, rattling global energy markets and triggering widespread inflation fears.
Supply disruptions have also hit Europe and Africa hard, where countries are responding to rising fuel costs and a significant threat to food security. The imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is on the horizon, prompting many to ponder the extent to which the world remains dependent on fossil fuel trade routes.
When asked about blackout concerns for imported fossil fuels, Fortum CEO Markus Rauramo said: “It’s a different kind of blackout, but definitely. So, that’s exactly our message that the solution to being dependent on imported CO2-containing fuels is actually to have clean home-grown electricity.”
He added: “That’s the way forward, but we’re very realistic. We’re not naive that, yes, there are cuts and if you have a business or your home is dependent on gas then it’s a big change.”
The evolving energy security debate comes just months after fossil fuel leaders welcomed a paradigm shift in the narrative around the energy transition.
Speaking to CNBC at the UAE’s annual oil summit late last year, many fossil fuel industry players championed the concept of “energy addition” to secure supply and meet new demands from sectors such as artificial intelligence.
Energy addition refers to an effort to develop new technologies, such as renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, in parallel with existing fossil fuels. Energy transition, in contrast, typically refers to the transfer from one energy source to another.
Batteries and hydropower
Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, CEO of Statkraft, Europe’s largest renewable energy producer, acknowledged that the energy security discourse on clean technologies has been transformed by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
“I think another thing that’s developed in this period is batteries, right? So they’re much cheaper and last longer as they can be stored,” Vartdal said.
Workers install solar panels on the roof of a house in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, on May 13, 2026. Vietnam is expanding the adoption of rooftop solar as part of a broader push towards renewable energy and long-term energy security.
Thanh Hue | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Batteries are seen as a way to reduce the outages of renewable energy projects by absorbing excess electricity when production is high and discharging it when production is low.
“In some countries, where in the past we had only those working hours in the morning and evening, those hours can now be taken over by batteries for much more. So batteries plus solar power, or batteries plus solar and wind, can also provide much more total production.”
Shoulder hours refer to the blocks during the day between peak energy demand and off-peak times.
The blackout issue in Norway, which has a reputation as the gold standard for renewable hydropower, is not an issue in the same way as other countries in Europe, Vartdal said, adding that “variability is key” in the security debate.
“Ultimately, we believe you need some gas in the system to be able to withstand extended periods of low production,” Vartdal said.
Europe’s move towards US LNG
While the Iran war may have moved the needle on the traditional energy security narrative, turning to alternative energy sources in times of conflict can present challenges. Some raised the alarm Europe is flocking to US LNG after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
LNG tanker HL SEA EAGLE unloads liquefied natural gas from the Sabine Pass LNG terminal in the United States at the Revithoussa terminal near Athens, Greece, on March 28, 2026.
Nurfoto | Nurfoto | Getty Images
“Going forward, we will have a lot more LNG in Europe, and given the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a lot of that LNG will now come from the United States,” Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at the University of Oxford in England, told CNBC.
“And that means that we’re faced with a country that’s currently seen as quite politically unstable when it comes to international relations, so it’s a very problematic situation indeed. And domestically produced electricity from renewable sources doesn’t face that problem.”
