UK weather: Rain returns to UK ahead of predicted heatwave
Although the summer has started off cool and wet, some long-term forecast models suggest that warmer than average conditions may develop across the UK, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves later in the season.
The Met Office announced its three-month summer outlook on June 1, the first day of meteorological summer, suggesting the possibility of warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout the month.
And for the entire summer, continuing through the end of August, the outlook shows “an increased likelihood of heat waves and heat-related impacts.”
It comes after a late spring heatwave broke temperature records across the UK.
The new all-time May record of 35.1C was set at Kew Gardens in London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C in 1944.
Yellow and amber heat health warnings were also issued for the first time this year.
Long-term forecasts from both the Met Office and MeteoGroup, provider of BBC Weather data, show the likelihood of a heatwave will increase in the coming summer months.
MeteoGroup’s seasonal outlook points to above-average temperatures throughout June, July and August, with the potential for a few notable temperature rises and significant heat bursts affecting both the UK and parts of Europe.
This broadly aligns with the Met Office’s long-term assessment, which suggests warmer than average conditions are more likely this summer. The Met Office says the likelihood of a hotter-than-average summer is twice as high as in the 1991-2020 climate reference period, reflecting the impact of a warming climate.
