Flailing newsrooms flog fears of a fictional recession

As Alan Austin reveals, concerns about the Australian economy fueled by craven anti-Labor ‘reporters’ are unfounded.

LAST WEDNESDAY’S national accounts It showed Australia’s economy was the strongest since the Coalition collapsed in 2022. It is currently the only developed country with economic growth above 2% of gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate and inflation below 4.6%, and government debt below 20% of GDP.

Quarterly accounts released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last Wednesday (ABSs), confirm that Australia is not close to recession. Unfortunately for the nation’s mental health, most newsrooms continue to distort this narrative.

Improving results — quarterly and annually

Quarterly growth in GDP for the March quarter was 0.27%. This is lower than in the previous three quarters, but higher than in March last year and the year before.

37 rich people OECD Members who submitted their March report numbersSix moved into the red: France, Sweden, Israel, Mexico, Chile and Lithuania; Portugal and Luxembourg recorded zero growth.

Ireland continues its long journey recession. Canada recorded zero growth after a negative December quarter. So, these are difficult times.

Australia’s annual GDP growth was 2.52%, slightly above the revised 2.51% figure for December last year. This brought this pass like the wind The number of positive annual quarters increased to 21; This is a record matched only by Belgium, France, Switzerland and Türkiye. (And if we believe their numbers, it’s the United States that no one else should.)

2.52% of Australia ranks It ranked ninth in the OECD, down from 31st in 2022 under the hapless Coalition administration. The OECD average is at a dismal 1.64% due to devastating tariffs, trade wars and military conflicts caused by the corrupt and incompetent Trump regime in the United States.

Australia overcomes additional local disruptions after ABS head of national accounts Grace Kim explainedto contain “Hurricane disruptions to mining and export activities”.

The important thing is, Ms. Kim said, most growth Obtained from private enterprises where machinery investments are recorded “The biggest increase in 30 years”.

Australia’s real net national disposable income per capita rose to $19,377 in March. While superficially welcome, this remains unclear because this proportion will decline as incomes shift from the top 20% to the bottom 80%, which is clearly the case.

Gross disposable income reached $456.3 billion, an increase of 5% compared to March last year and a huge increase of 20.6% in March 2023.

Total national factor income reached $665 billion, up 5.1% from a year ago. The share of this revenue going to employees is now 54.2%, the highest since 2016. The share going to corporate profits fell to 26.9%, the lowest level since 2018. See the table below.

Institutional profitability Profits from mining continue to rise, reaching a new record of $84.6 billion in March.

Indicators of all-time high living standards are still rising. These include: health results, life expectationpercentage of students registered in private schools abroad trips per population, sales increase in new cars and light aircraft, dining out and other luxury spending as a percentage of GDP, and fewer elderly people forced to do so work.

Media mendacity is getting worse

As shown earlier, the stronger the Australian economy, the poorer the reporting.

In other countries, newsrooms were congratulating corporate bosses for their initiatives, unions for their cooperation, consumers for their trust, themselves for timely reporting, and perhaps saluting the government for its oversight.

But in Australia, where last week’s data confirmed it is arguably the world’s best-performing economy, shockers and charlatans have handed out banners that read:

‘It will be a long winter: Top economist warns of recession’ (Sky News);
‘Jim Chalmers praises Australia’s failing economy as a success story in the final chapter of fanciful comeback’ (Daily Mail Australia);
‘Australian economy is slowing down as the cost of living and high oil prices affect growth’ (Australian);
‘This is how the recession comes’ (Audience Australia);
‘Why is Alan Kohler worried about recession?’ (ABC News);
‘Senior economists warn Australia is at risk of stagflation’ (Nine News); And
‘Australia faces the possibility of recession for the first time in more than three decades’ (Daily Mail Australia).

Nonsense predictions of a terrible recession

Let’s examine the last of the above tawdry collection from a popular book. Daily Mail podcast. Presenter, Peter Van OnselenHe wants us to be afraid – very afraid. We can understand this under the menacing music of Mount Doom.

Van Onselen begins:

“It’s hard to overstate the pain Australians felt when the 1990 recession hit. Mortgage rates were at 17%. Unemployment was over 11%. Youth unemployment was at 30%, if you can believe it…”

So what? Today’s numbers are not close to these.

Van Onselen continued:

“Yet here we are today, Australia potentially on the verge of a 1990s-style recession. That’s not fancy rhetoric to me. That’s what the Reserve Bank is warning about, the risk to the economy right now. RBA governor Sarah Hunter, when asked about where the economy stands, warned that if we’re not careful and the right steps aren’t taken to rein in inflation, the prospect of a repeat of the 1990s recession is a nightmare for some…”

Certainly, Sarah Hunter No such warning was given. Not anywhere. Never. In fact, he said the exact opposite. Independent A.Australia met with the RBA.

Dr Hunter was particularly highlighted in the emailed response to reject recession:

‘This outcome is not included in our baseline forecast and was not an outcome we saw in the two alternative scenarios we presented in the Monetary Policy Statement…’

So no, Daily Mail‘s dire warning of a recession with double-digit mortgages and unemployment rates was not a rhetorical flourish. This was a crude political attack based on zero evidence, disguised as economic analysis.

Unfortunately, this is what is called “journalism” today.

Alan Austin is an Independent Australian columnist and freelance journalist. You can follow him on Twitter @alanaustin001 and Bluesky @alanaustin.bsky.social.

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