Scientists warn of record rate of global warming
Scientists say that human activities have increased global warming to 1.37°C by 2025 and that the rate of heat generated in the Earth system is intensifying.
Leading scientists’ annual update of “global climate change indicators” reveals clear evidence that the world continues to warm; global warming will exceed a significant threshold of 1.5C in about four years.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to continue efforts to limit global warming to “well below 2 degrees” above pre-industrial levels and limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees.
The study, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, warns that the “carbon budget” – the amount of greenhouse gas emissions the Earth can emit that can keep the temperature at 1.5°C – is likely to run out in just three years. The 1.7C budget will be exhausted in 12 years.
Emissions of climate-warming pollutants are at an all-time high, particularly from the burning of fossil fuels.
There are signs that growth in greenhouse gas emissions is slowing, with factors such as the high oil price and the shift to electric cars and renewable energy sources potentially starting to lead to peaks and troughs in emissions, the researchers said.
However, the findings show that global warming continues at an unprecedented pace, with the Earth warming by 0.27 degrees per decade and 2025 being the third hottest year in history.
Lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, said: “An important indicator is the Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures how quickly heat accumulates in the climate system and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change.
“Without human influence it would have been close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record level, doubling in recent decades.”
This is causing a massive increase in marine heatwaves, occurring over 65 days in 2025 alone, and warming on land and oceans causing ice to melt and sea levels to rise.
Research leader of the Royal Netherlands Institute of Naval Research, Dr. According to Aimee Slangen, global sea level rise in 2025 reaches a new record of 23 cm since 1901; seas are rising at about 1.8 mm per year; this is an “accelerating” rate.
“This may sound small, but even this level of change is increasing coastal flooding in low-lying areas around the world, damaging livelihoods and ecosystems,” he warned.
Climate strategic leader of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, Dr. Samantha Burgess said almost all of the warming in the last decade was caused by human activities, and the effects will accelerate.
“There are signs that carbon dioxide emissions growth is slowing, and that doesn’t mean we’re on the right track yet, but it does mean that policy, technology and societal choices are starting to bend the curve.”
Dr Burgess said it was important to have conversations to understand how things will continue, warning that “the next few years are really critical”.
He said the report, which provides annual updates on key climate indicators reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is “not just a scientific scorecard.”
“This is a real-time feedback system about global climate and global climate policy,” Dr Burgess said.
