Polymarket traders think SpaceX will cross $2 trillion market cap
SpaceX facilities in Hawthorne, California, April 13, 2026.
Ethan Swap | Bloomberg | Getty Images
SpaceX It’s set to debut on Nasdaq on Friday, and investors at predictions market platform Polymarket are confident shares will soar.
The Elon Musk-led rocket company is expected to set its price per share at $135, giving the company a current market cap of $1.77 trillion. However, traders think there is a high probability that it will head further north of here on the first day of trading.
According to Polymarket investors, there is an 84% chance that SpaceX’s market value will close above $1.8 trillion. There is a 69% chance that SpaceX will exceed $2 trillion.
Based on an expected initial market cap of $1.77 trillion, a capitalization of roughly $2 trillion would equate to a 13 percent rise for SpaceX on Friday. Pre-IPO rolling futures on Hyperliquid suggest SpaceX could rise more than 20% on its first day of trading.
Investors are more skeptical that SpaceX will close with a market cap of over $2.2 trillion, giving it a less than 50-50 chance.
A close of more than $2 trillion would put SpaceX in an exclusive club. Only five other US companies — Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft And Amazon – They have valuations of over $2 trillion.
SpaceX’s $2 trillion could also put it ahead of the chip giant broadcomIts valuation is $1.85 trillion. Even at an expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would prove to be bigger than Musk’s electric vehicle flagship. Tesla’s market cap was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday, according to FactSet data.
