EU moves Ukraine’s membership bid forward, but tough road ahead
Foreign ministers of the 27-nation bloc will officially launch talks with Ukraine and neighboring Moldova on compliance with the first “cluster” of EU laws.
Ukraine’s progress was blocked for nearly two years as Hungary’s nationalist leader Viktor Orban vetoed all progress, but his election defeat to rival Peter Magyar in April paved the way for that.
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“This is recognition of the determination, courage and hard work that both countries have shown in advancing reforms despite great difficulties,” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint statement with European Council President Antonio Costa. he said.
“In a world marked by increasing uncertainty, a greater European Union is in our common interest.”
But despite the fanfare and Kiev’s plea for rapid progress four years after applying for membership following Russia’s invasion, this does not mean the war-torn country will join the bloc any time soon. From a purely practical perspective, there is still a huge workload ahead of harmonizing Ukraine’s laws, institutions and standards with those of the EU.
This involves negotiating through 35 “chapters” grouped into six “clusters” covering everything from the environment and agriculture to justice and security.
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However, as always in the EU, this question is highly political and there are countless points at which any member state can put the brakes on Kiev if it wishes.
“This is a long process. Ukraine is at war. There are organized crime problems that need to be solved. It will be the third largest country in the EU,” a European diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.
“The possibility of Ukraine’s expansion occurring anytime soon has never been realistic.”
Hungary’s Magyar has promised a referendum on Kiev’s accession if Ukraine completes all negotiations “within the next 10 to 15 years.”
Beyond that, there appears to be a broader desire to soften Kiev’s ambitions, and talk of possible alternatives is also increasing.
‘Associate’ member?
“It is clear to everyone that it is of course not possible for Ukraine to join the EU immediately,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in April. he said.
Merz proposes that Ukraine become an “associate member” of the EU without voting rights, while Kiev is going through a long process of full accession.
This plan aroused skepticism in Ukraine, which feared that any proposed workaround would permanently let it down.
President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted that Ukraine’s participation must be “with full rights”.
But there is wider pressure to shake up the EU accession process, with Ukraine, Moldova and other hopeful countries knocking on the door.
Six countries, including Germany and France, have called on the bloc to limit new members’ voting rights on key issues and tighten rule of law measures.
The Western Balkan duo of Montenegro and Albania are the closest candidates to join, and a raft of new members could make the EU ungovernable.
For Ukraine and its supporters, accepting Kiev is in the bloc’s core interests and the EU needs to send a clear signal on a timetable.
Zelensky said on Friday that the launch of talks had brought “significant political and moral support” to the country.
“Ukraine is doing what is necessary and it is important that the EU keeps its word,” he said on social media. he wrote.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told reporters that he wants the bloc to be prepared to accept Ukraine by 2030, if the process is completed by then.
“This does not mean that there is a guarantee that Ukraine will become a member state in 2030. Whether they will reform or not depends on Ukraine and the negotiations,” he said.
“But we can say that the European Union will be ready for this.”
