Ten years on, Brexit still divides Britain and casts a pall over its economy

A decade ago, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum that has shaped political identities to this day and shattered the half-century project of drawing closer to the continent.

Brexit, short for British exit, became a reality on June 23, 2016, when 52% (more than 17 million people) voted to leave the EU. Although the margin was narrow, the vote caused the most dramatic shake-up to the UK economy and society since the Second World War.

But like any divorce, the paperwork and process to finalize the separation wasn’t quick: It took about five years.

Brexit emerged from a growing sense of disillusionment not only with the EU but with the global financial crisis of 2008. Supporters were able to capitalize on this disappointment and argue that the UK could be revitalized alone and focused solely on domestic priorities.

Opponents have warned that Brexit would lead to economic disruption and put the country’s position in the world at risk.

This is where Brexit stands, ten years later.

Brexit has led to a harsh economic reality

Supporters of Brexit (commonly known as Brexiteers) have championed the vision that Britain’s economy could thrive outside the EU, tapping into the buccaneering spirit that once made it the world’s largest.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic, the wars in Ukraine and the recent US-Israeli war against Iran have not helped, it is clear that the British economy has not revived.

Merchants complained about the obstacles they now had to overcome when trading with their European neighbors; The 27-nation EU remains by far Britain’s largest trading partner.

Although there are no tariffs imposed on British goods entering the EU, there are a number of non-tariff barriers such as cumbersome customs paperwork, border certificates and visa restrictions. Many of the trade deals touted by Brexiteers have not materialised, particularly the one with the US.

Experts say Britain’s economy is between 4 percent and 8 percent smaller than it would be if the country voted to remain in the EU. This would mean much higher living standards and billions of dollars more poured into public services, including the National Health Service, which has been promised an extra £350 million ($468 million) a week by Brexit campaigners. The phrase was written on big red campaign buses.

“Brexit has made the UK economy smaller than it otherwise would have been,” said King’s College London professor Jonathan Portes.

“The result has not been a sudden collapse but a gradual and cumulative drag on trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in a paper for the UK at the Changing Europe think tank.

However, Brexiteers argue that leaving the EU is not something that can be considered in the short term, as there will always be a short-term economic disruption in exchange for greater control over a range of policy instruments, including immigration.

Reactions against immigrants are increasing

Brexit ended free movement between the UK and the EU, but securing the British border has had mixed results. Getting the immigration problem under control was an important promise of Brexiteers; Messages of taking back control resonated.

Although net migration (the difference between those entering the UK and those leaving Europe in any given year) has decreased, it has risen from non-EU countries. This is partly due to changes to visa rules introduced by the previous Conservative government to help sectors in desperate need of migrant labour, such as workers caring for the elderly.

But overall there are signs that the government is taking control of who can and cannot legally enter the country. Net migration has fallen sharply, from 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year.

Although net migration has fallen, many people are angered by the sight of migrants entering the country illegally, particularly by the sight of people fleeing war zones such as Afghanistan and Sudan arriving on British shores in inflatable boats after making the perilous journey across the Channel.

Turmoil over the number of small boat crossings, which reached 46,000 in 2022 and 41,000 last year, has become one of the most important political issues, despite being a small part of the overall migration. Anger has often focused on asylum seekers whose costs are publicly covered. Rebel gangs protested outside and even tried to set fire to some hotels housing refugees.

Voters expressed their regrets

In the years since Brexit, Britain’s political landscape has fragmented, with support for the two long-dominant parties, the Conservatives and Labour, declining. The Conservatives were expelled in 2024 after 14 years in power, mostly dominated by squabbles over UK-European relations.

The Labor government has left him unimpressed and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks set to announce his resignation very soon.

Millions of voters are attracted to Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, who has campaigned for Brexit perhaps more than any other politician. His party has been leading in almost all opinion polls for more than a year.

At the same time, there is a growing sense in the country that Brexit has failed.

According to two polls conducted by Ipsos, 52 percent of people in the UK want to rejoin the EU, while 33 percent are against it. The poll also found that 48 per cent thought Brexit went worse than expected, while only 9 per cent thought it went better. Additionally, Ipsos found that 48% support holding a new referendum on Britain’s EU membership today, while 27% oppose it.

Resetting would be complicated

Against this backdrop, Labor has been walking a tightrope since being elected in 2024. The Party, which has openly rejected reversing Brexit or even rejoining the EU’s frictionless single market, does not have much political room to manoeuvre.

Starmer had sought a “reset” of ties following distrust built up during years of Brexit negotiations, which largely focused on trade facilitation. He hopes to announce further measures at a summit with the EU next month, provided he is still prime minister.

His most likely successor, Andy Burnham, softened his language on Britain rejoining the EU while on the campaign trail last month, ahead of his victory in Thursday’s special election in which he beat back a challenge from Reform in a seat that overwhelmingly backed Brexit.

“I’m not suggesting the UK should consider rejoining the EU,” Burnham said. “I respect the decision taken in the referendum, and if we do not respect that vote it will undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy.”

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Associated Press writer Jill Lawless in London contributed to this story